electoral math update: obama widens a paper lead.

Today’s Electoral-vote.com polling data—as seen above—would indicate Obama is heading toward an electoral landslide in November. Their current polling models show Obama leading Romney 332 – 206; a comfortable margin of victory. But I wouldn’t start scheduling blue-state parties just yet. I remain unconvinced for a few reasons:

The Romney Surge Out West. Romney narrowed the gap in New Mexico so rapidly that he could eventually claim it as a red state.

Razor Thin Lead in the Rust Belt. Obama’s lead in the Rust Belt states (Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania) is shrinking, not maintaining or growing.

Virginia’s Love-Hate Relationship w/ Obama. Sure, he leads in Virginia, but the margin is so narrow it barely counts. Obama wasn’t joking when he told supporters if he wins Virginia, he wins the election. That may be true.

The Sunshine State. Florida. Recent polling data gives Obama an edge, but I expect that to change as we draw nearer to November.

Those six states account for 101 electoral votes; more than enough to turn an election.

With more than three months between now and Election Day, I expect every aforementioned state to change colors numerous times. If there’s anything to be read in today’s tea leaves, it might be that Romney hasn’t made a last dent in Obama’s strongholds. That being said, Romney also hasn’t fully delivered his heaviest punches. Those will start right about the time the conventions end in a month. Look for his campaign to deliver a steady barrage of attacks in swing states from September – November.

Obama’s strategy remains much as it was last month and the month before that: lock down the Midwest + Virginia and Florida becomes an afterthought. But I doubt Obama will ignore Floridians and their 29 electoral votes. That’s a big chunk of the pie. But if he holds onto the Midwest and Virginia, he makes Romney’s road that much narrower. Romney needs Florida more than Obama does, currently.

Michigan and Ohio could be the toughest for Obama to maintain, but I think he keeps Michigan in his column. The auto industry rebirth is still his feather in his cap.

If you ask me, Ohio and Colorado are the wildest wildcard states right now. One or both of those states could determine our next president.

EDIT: In case anybody wonders, here’s what my current electoral map looks like. In other words…nowhere close to an outcome. I’ll lock in my predictions around Labor Day weekend.


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