my 2012 oscars predictions.

0305_oscarFortunately, this year’s list of nominees doesn’t include any one-off gimmicks like last year (The Artist). It’s a heavy, heavy list of worthy picks. I wouldn’t be surprised if this were the least predictable Oscar year in recent history. At any rate, here are my picks and predictions.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Who I Want to Win
Sally Field, Lincoln—She was phenomenal in a film with very few female characters.

Who I Think Will Win
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables—From what I’ve read, prepare thine self for a truly self-absorbed, awful acceptance speech. You’ve been warned.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Who I Want to Win
Leonardo DiCaprio Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained—This is a difficult category, with many great performances. I loved all of them that I saw. Sadly, my favorite was not nominated.

Who I Think Will Win
Alan Arkin, Argo—I nearly committed to Tommy Lee Jones. Like I said, very tough category.

BEST ACTRESS
Who I Want to Win
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook—She did the most with the least, if you ask me. Not that her character was poorly written. Rather, she brought the most out of it.

Who I Think Will Win
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty—In all fairness, she was great.

BEST ACTOR
Who I Want to Win
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln—It’s scary how he becomes a character.

Who I Think Will Win
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

BEST DIRECTOR
Who I Want to Win
Ang Lee, Life of Pi—This film surprised me the most. That seems dumb to say, given how well it’s done at the box office.

Who I Think Will Win
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln—Hard to argue against it, really.

BEST PICTURE
What I Want to Win
Django Unchained—I’m even surprised, myself. I might change my mind tomorrow, because I really loved many of the nominees this year. There are many worthy films, but this one entertained me the most.

What I Think Will Win
Lincoln—If history is a guide, the Best Director winner will dictate the Best Picture winner. But if ever there was year for surprises, this is it.

EDITED TO ADD (5:12 P.M. EST): I wouldn’t be surprised to see Argo take Best Picture. That is, if we do get a Best Director/Best Picture split—which hasn’t happened since 2005 when Crash won Best Picture and Ang Lee won Best Director—Argo is the favorite to take it.

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