my survivor finale preview.

The 26th Survivor season finale is just around the corner. Yes, 26th. It’s still my favorite reality TV show, and this season’s installment of Survivor Caramoan—a second helping of Fans vs. Favorites—has been one of the most entertaining seasons in recent years.

I openly complained about the weak-minded gameplay of most of the contestants over the past three seasons. Too many of the runners-up were too content to play follow the leader and join the victory lap behind eventual winners; most notably “Boston” Rob Mariano in Season 23.

This season’s players have been more inclined to break alliances quickly if it meant moving ahead in the game, individually. For the Survivors, it must be hell to navigate through those choppy waters everyday. But for fans watching at home, it makes for much higher drama. With the final five contestants set, I thought I’d break down their chances of winning…and how they can screw it all up. It’s important to note who currently sits on the jury: Michael (fan), Phillip (favorite), Malcolm (favorite), Reynold (fan), Andrea (favorite) and Brenda (favorite).

It’ll be interesting to see if the remnants of Stealth R Us remains a reliable voting bloc for whomever’s left from their alliance. Brenda might be the most chapped after getting blindsinded in the last Tribal Council, but will she throw her vote away out of spite? Hmm…

The Final Five
Cochran (favorite)—Probably the most strategic player left in the game. With Brenda gone, he’s eliminated his greatest threat…until the next Tribal Council. His chances of winning are dampened by his chances (or lack thereof) of winning another immunity challenge. If he gets one more immunity, he could lock it up.
Biggest threat: Dawn and Sherri. If those two pair up and bring Eddie along, Cochran’s toast. As long as they don’t figure that out, he just needs to either keep them in check or get rid of them if they stage an insurrection.
Who should he take to the final Tribal Council? Sherri and Eddie.

Sherri (fan)—This year’s “under-the-radar” player. To her credit, Sherri’s hung around because of her ability to adapt and mesh with just about any fellow player. She gets an ‘A’ for her social game, but a ‘C’ for everything else. She’s not been strategic enough and hasn’t forged strong alliances. She’s strictly been a follower.
Biggest threat: Dawn and Erik. At this point, I think she’s an also-ran.
Who should she take to the final Tribal Council? Eddie and Erik.

Dawn (favorite)—She’s played a pretty strong game, thus far. Yeah, she’s gone a little nutty at times, but I’m sure they all have. She could be the dark horse in this game, but one player stands in her way.
Biggest threat: Cochran. She needs to make a big move right now and get rid of him if she wants to win. It would be bold and risky, but I’d rather not sit next to him in the Final Tribal.
Who should she take to the final Tribal Council? Sherri and Eddie.

Eddie (fan)—In another season, Eddie might’ve been a strong competitor. But he’s had his back against the wall so often that he’s really nothing more than an unwitting stooge. The game is happening all around him and he’s not even a part of the strategy. The remaining players know he’s a potential swing vote, but they also know they don’t need him. Yet. He needs to go on an immunity run right now to signal to the jury he’s worthy of their vote.
Biggest threat: Cochran and Dawn. Those two stand in his way.
Who should he take to the final Tribal Council? Sherri and Erik…but it’s still a longshot.

Erik (favorite)—To his credit, he’s played a smarter game than his last time on the island. He’s been subtle and strategic, but mostly appears passive. How he performs from this point could determine his fate in the game. Like Dawn, Erik needs to make a bold move to impress the jury.
Biggest threat: Cochran. I get the feeling Cochran keeps Erik around and only tells him so much.
Who should he take to the final Tribal Council? Sherri and Eddie.

Best Chance To Win: Cochran
Least Likely To Win: Eddie
Best Player Who Already Got Voted Off: Malcolm
Worst Player Who Already Got Voted Off: Brandon
Most Underrated Player: Erik
Dumbest Player: Brandon

One Last Thing
Jeff Probst. If you’re reading this, call me. I should be on this island. I would win. I know it.

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