week 12 college football review: the playoff picture is getting clearer.

Sorry, kids. I had a life this weekend and really didn’t watch any college football. There is no Week 12 review. Suffice it to say the Mississippi State loss and Florida State win changed the top ranking. For my money, the playoff teams right now look like:
* Florida State
* Alabama
* Oregon
* TCU or Baylor (I’m leaning toward Baylor)

It doesn’t matter yet, though. There are a two teams that can change this Top 4 (or Top 5, as it were), but not many:
* Ohio State
* Mississippi State

So, yeah. We’re down to a six-horse race for four berths. In the past, I was a vocal opponent to the idea of multiple teams from one conference making it to the playoff. Now, it could be a very real possibility. But it’s not necessarily the teams you might think. I could see a scenario where TCU and Baylor both make the playoff, but only if every SEC team left at the end as two losses and Ohio State loses along the way. But that’s a long shot. What could really handicap the Big 12 teams is the fact that they don’t have a championship game. I don’t know where the committee will land on it, but for my money, it would be hard for me to slot TCU or Baylor over a one-loss Ohio State that had to play that one, extra game to prove itself.

On a similar note, I would have trouble putting any two-loss team ahead of a Big-12 or B1G team, regardless of conference championships.

This entire process is rather fluid and is going to be as much an art as it will be a science. Chances are it’ll work itself out in the long run. But to me, it only adds validation to my eight-team playoff proposal. In that scenario, all five conference champions are in. After that, the conference can decide if an undefeated Marshall or one-loss Colorado State deserves shot. If fans love March Madness™ underdogs, imagine how they’d feel about Marshall getting a seat at the table.

I guess that, and most of the hypothetical rumination, will just have to wait another day.

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Filed under analysis, College Football, NCAA, sports

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