Category Archives: politics

if i were the white house communications director for a day.

KevMooch.jpg

Yes, that is my giant, jack-o-lantern-like cranium perched atop Anthony Scaramucci’s tiny, Lilliputian-like body. And yes, it’s bad PhotoShop. Sorry. My graphic designer sucks.

Presidents have to wear many hats. Outside of the actual duties of the job, as laid out by the constitution, they also have to sometimes serve as moral leaders, mourners in chief and wise, empathetic “dad” to the American public. The good ones know how to give voice to our anxiety, our pride, our pain and our anger. Where Ronald Reagan was masterful at communicating to the American public with sincerity, our current president—who burns through communications directors the way Spinal Tap burns through drummers—is the exact opposite.

Because I’m a communications hack by day, I’ve been viewing the post-Charlottesville events unfold through my public relations prism. Bottom line: this president and this White House couldn’t have botched it more if they tried. If I were the White House communications director for a day (which is about how long they usually last), I have my own thoughts on how I would’ve advised this president on what to say in response to Charlottesville.

Let me break it down for you in parts.

Part I: The Initial Statement
This is a delicate matter. In times of national crisis and/or tragedy, the nation looks to the president for reassurance and validation. Trump blew it. He absolutely blew it. You don’t tweet at an event like what we witness last weekend. That should never be the president’s first reaction.

Instead, the president must deliver a statement that conveys empathy, condolences and a sharp rebuke against Nazis. In the pantheon of political no-brainers, opposing Nazis is about as easy as it gets; or so we thought.

Anyway, if I were the White House Communications Director, I would’ve advised the president to deliver a statement that goes something like this:

[BEGIN]
My fellow Americans.

You are all aware by now of the awful tragedy that occurred in Charlottesville, Virginia over the weekend. Like you, I am appalled, saddened and angered by the violence and tragic loss of three lives. The awful events of this weekend were set in motion by a gathering of hate groups with long histories of violence in this nation. These racist organizations took to a college campus to foment fear, hatred and to spread their racist ideology.

Let me be clear: these hate groups are an abomination to our American values and our American way of life. Nazis, white nationalists and racism have no place in civilized society. In no uncertain terms, you are not welcome here. I am instructing the Justice Department to conduct a full and thorough investigation of this weekend’s tragic events. I am also instructing the Department of Homeland Security to regard these hate groups as terrorist organizations that must be eradicated.

Our constitution avails all Americans the right to free speech, but it does not avail rights to hate groups to spread their pernicious ideology of hatred.

What cannot be lost in all this is the loss of human life today. We mourn for Heather Heyer, a bright young woman who felt her true purpose in life was to spread a message of love and hope. We also mourn for Virginia state troopers Lt. H. Jay Cullen and Pilot Berk Bates who tragically died in a helicopter crash while monitoring the protests. I offer my deepest condolences to the families of these three victims.

Throughout the history of our great nation, we have encountered civil unrest too often as a result of racism. While I understand and appreciate the passion and dedication of those who speak out against racism in all its forms, I implore you to not resort to meeting violence with violence. We must appeal to our better angels and spread a message of peace, inclusion and togetherness. Answering violence from this awful scourge with violence will only dampen our efforts to achieve a more perfect union.

I encourage you to continue to speak out, to not allow racism to take root, but to do so peacefully.

Martin Luther King Jr. once said, “Love is the only force capable of transforming an enemy into friend.” I call upon each of you today to carry Dr. King’s message forward and continue to spread love throughout your communities. This is the only true way—the American way—to stamp out this threat to our great society once and for all.

May God bless you, may God bless our fallen victims and their families, and may God bless these United States of America.
[END]

I know it’s not perfect, but it’s a first (and only) draft. Either way, you get the point. You offer empathy. You offer condolences. You tell the Nazis they are not welcome. You let the counter-protestors know you’re with them, but you ask for calm and nonviolent means to achieve their goals. You’re knocking it all out in 500 words or fewer.

That’s what a president does. You don’t step in a bear trap. And, by bear trap, I mean the false equivalence of “both sides.” No. Wrong. You condemn violence, but you do not lump counter-protestors in with racists. If you do that, you’re essentially validating the racists’ ideology.

A statement like this inoculates him from falling into a combative, disturbing and horrifying press conference where he gets into a push-and-shove over Confederate statues. Which leads me to…

Part II: The Great Statue Debate
Simply put: PUNT!

I say that because this president doesn’t share my views on the matter. But even if he did, I would advise against taking a hard position on it. Doing so would undermine and unravel the above statement that calls for unity and nonviolence against hate groups.

The goal is to keep the president aligned with the larger issues and to not get pulled into quicksand over hunks of bronze.

No, I’m not trivializing people’s feelings on the statues; but the president needs to focus attention on those about as much as he does the paintjob on Air Force jets.

Let the pundit class deal with the statues.

I would let the press secretary (eeeeeek!) say something like: “The president understands that passion runs deep on these statues in the communities. Therefore, the communities should decide for themselves how to address the issue. The president remains focused on addressing and eliminating future threats from racist hate groups.”

Also, what not to do: equate two Founding Fathers to Confederate generals. That does you no good at all.

Part III: When in Doubt, Denounce the Nazis
If you wish to be the president of all 50 states, don’t fall into the false equivalence trap. Don’t do the bidding of cable news hacks and Infowars. Just stay away from it. We aren’t talking about the ACLU vs. the Christian Coalition. We aren’t talking about Planned Parenthood vs. Focus on the Family. We’re talking about Nazis. NAZIS! No politician will lose points by denouncing Nazis. But the moment you start lumping other groups in with Nazis—and let’s be clear, NO OTHER GROUPS COMPARE!—you once again validate the racists. Simply put, don’t do it!

Of course, all this is predicated upon the belief that the president will be a rational, pragmatic, empathic, clearheaded and focused leader.

Your mileage may vary.

Advertisements

Leave a comment

Filed under analysis, opinion, politics

voter fraud in nevada? put away your torches & pitchforks, turbo.

The SimpsonsReports came out last night that the Nevada Secretary of State’s office is investigating possible voter fraud in the 2016 general election. Though few specifics were released, Sec. of State Barabara Cegavske alluded to non-citizens voting . Where did they vote? How many illegal votes were cast? She wouldn’t say.

The SoS’s office is looking to the Nevada Dept. of Motor Vehicles for its practice of disseminating voter registration materials as a possible link. The DMV responded with a feigned, “who….me???” expression.

Here is the Las Vegas Review-Journal’s take on the investigation:
Nevada investigation targets alleged voter fraud in 2016 election

Also from KLAS-TV 8 News Now:
UPDATE: DMV responds to illegal voting investigation

Before this investigation becomes politicized and polarized, before Rachel Maddow puts us all to sleep with a 20-minute, antiseptic, high-minded, snoozy, professorial lecture, before the monkeys at Fox & Friends start flinging their feces about the studio in excitement, let me just say:

Calm. Down.

Put away your torches and pitchforks. Take a deep breath, settle in and let the process play out. Right now, we know nothing. This investigation doesn’t play into anyone’s narrative yet. Should voter fraud be uncovered, it still doesn’t play into anyone’s narrative.

Historically speaking, in-person voter fraud has been decidedly minimal. It is not the scourge it’s been made out to be by certain media outlets. This 2014 headline on his 2014 headline on The Washington Post’s Wonkblog should keep James O’Keefes and Oliver Stones of the world at bay (it won’t, but I like to dream):

A comprehensive investigation of voter impersonation finds 31 credible incidents out of one billon ballots cast

That works out to 0.000000031 percent. I don’t even know how to say that. Is that 31-quadrillionth of a percent?

Sure, that study has nothing to do with the 2016 election, but it does give us an indication of just on infrequently this sort of thing occurs. It also illustrates that in-person voter fraud is not a conspiracy.

As for the investigation in Nevada, Cegavske’s statement with more questions than answers. Do you have credible reports of fraudulent ballots being cast? If so, how many? Is there direct linkage between the ballots in question and the DMV? Or a specific DMV location/employee? What events took place to lead your office to open an investigation?

Her statement to the Las Vegas Review-Journal was decidedly short on details.

“Based on new information we have recently uncovered, we have initiated an investigation into illegal votes cast in the last general election…Our office has been clear; we will investigate any allegation of election law violations that may jeopardize the integrity of Nevada’s voting process.”

Okay. Great. We can all go home now.

That statement says absolutely nothing that would merit anyone thinking it validates their beliefs, one way or the other.

Until the Nevada Secretary of State’s office answers these questions—and I sincerely hope local and regional media ask these questions—there is no there there. We’ll just have to wait and see.

And yes, I’m keenly aware I just turned into Rachel Maddow. At least I’m not acting like an agitated monkey though, right?

242e304d9db88ff0763d03104f50f167

Leave a comment

Filed under analysis, opinion, politics

the election 2016 hangover: where do democrats go now?

MV5BMjA0Njg4MzQyNl5BMl5BanBnXkFtZTgwNjAyNzkxMzE@._V1_.jpg

Yes, the Democrats got a rude awakening last Tuesday and probably spent the rest of the week searching for answers at the bottom of a tequila bottle. Sure, party leadership is probably coming off a bit of a bender right now. I can dig it. Losing to Donald Trump last week is a bitter pill to swallow, so get it all out of your system, Democrats, The Hangover (the movie) style.

Once you get your head back on straight, come to terms with this reality: Trump’s victory/your loss was a symptom of a larger problem festering within the Democratic Party at every level: lack of strategy, lack of message, lack of listening, lack of grassroots network. And it bit you in the ass. Again. The real question isn’t, “Why did we lose?” It’s, “When will you learn?!”

Rust Belt Red
If watching the entire Rust Belt go red on Election Night shocked DNC and state party leadership, they all should be fired. They’ve taken for granted the blue collar, middle class in these states for so long without actually competing for their interests that it results in more than just losing the presidency. Democrats have lost the Midwest at every level. As it stands, Republicans control both chambers of the state legislature in:

  • Indiana
  • Michigan
  • Ohio
  • Pennsylvania
  • Wisconsin

On top of that Republican governors sit atop the state government in all those states, but Pennsylvania (watch your six, Tom Wolf).

President Barack Obama’s popularity in the Midwest overshadowed the reality that Democrats have been steadily losing ground in the Midwest for years. No longer can they blame anyone but themselves.

The issues that plagued the Clinton campaign magnified the deepening divide among liberals and progressives who believe the party has gotten too cozy with Wall Street, with corporate donors and with centrist policy at the expense of core liberal values that once defined the Democratic Party.

True, unions may endorse Democratic candidates, but many of their members voted for Trump. We can say all day they were duped (they were), but who can blame them? National Democrats stopped paying attention to them. Voters went with the only candidate who showed interest. While Michigan Democrats were pleading with the Clinton camp to take the threat seriously, the DNC waved at them from afar.

When people feel they only have one side empathizing with them, guess who they support?

“You’re Fired!”
My only hope coming out of this election cycle is the DNC cleans house. Same goes for state party leadership throughout the Midwest; particularly in Indiana. Why Indiana? Because I lived there for 25 years and have watched the Indiana Democratic Party become a farce. All that’s missing from their efforts is Yakety Sax playing the background. In fact, I’d probably trust Boots Randolph more than any of the current state party leaders at this point.

With that in mind, Indiana Democratic Party, you are dead to me. DEAD. I may live on the other side of the country now, but I still get the occasional call from INDems for donations or support. At this point, kindly stop calling me. You will never get another dime out of me until you get serious and quit ceding three-quarters of the state to Republicans.

Who’s the Boss?
As for the DNC, a lot of talk about who will lead the party into a brave, new chapter is abound. We’ve heard names like Howard Dean (the past), Minnesota Congressman Keith Ellison (the present) and South Carolina State Party Chair Jaime Harrison (the future). Honestly, all three are solid choices, but I have a better person in mind.

f8cd0ecae63b47e68fc87ababad92e2f.jpgTheo Epstein.

You think I’m joking? I’m being absolutely serious here. I have no idea about Epstein’s passion for politics (he donated to the Clinton campaign), but there’s no questioning his passion for winning. And there’s especially no questioning his bona fides. He took two “cursed” baseball franchises and turned them into world championship powerhouses after decades of futility, close calls and heartbreak.

Whatever Epstein knows about baseball, I bet he could apply that to politics and win.

Given my doubts he would leave Major League Baseball for the soul-crushing nature of national politics, I suppose Democrats can at least hope party leadership looks back at 2016 and listens to the message of the people, and it’s a pretty simple one:

Move to the left.

Leave a comment

Filed under politics, Uncategorized

election night recap: broken crystal ball & broken hearts…but not a broken spirit.

GettyImages-509272964-1024x695.jpg

If you read my previous blog entry about the election, you already know I was wrong. However, I did say to watch out for deviations. And I was right in predicting Michigan as one of those deviations. I just didn’t predict Wisconsin. Or North Carolina.

My prediction was based on several different polls and sources of data. I knew Michigan was close. I thought that was the real threat, not Wisconsin. I thought North Carolina would ultimately stay blue. I should’ve known better.

But Pennsylvania? That one is a shock.

I thought we’d have Clinton as president by 8 p.m. PST. That was predicated on Democrats holding onto their firewall in the Midwest. Once North Carolina fell and the races remained tight throughout the Rust Belt, I knew my prediction was in trouble. If this were March Madness, I got bounced before the Sweet Sixteen.

After I posted my predictions, I shared with friends my concerns about North Carolina and Michigan. As of this moment, Clinton may still win Michigan, but Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina went red.

I may be brokenhearted, but my spirit is not broken. Out of this defeat, I see opportunity to  grow. I hope the people higher up the ladder than me see that, too.

On a personal level, I am stunned. I am disappointed. I am broken-hearted, truly. Also, I am…concerned about this result. However, I will not become that which I despised over the past eight years. I will not become a stubborn, anti-president person. I am going to take a more muted tone. For now.

But not before I get this off my chest. To all those Trump supporters who insisted they wanted to oust professional politicians from Washington in favor of a complete outsider, I have one question for you: then why did you re-elect so many incumbents tonight?

Be honest. It was never about “change.” It was about your hatred for Clinton. Fine. I get it. At least admit it. We underestimated the level of Clinton hatred out there. We also underestimated Clinton fatigue. It was an unceremonious end to an otherwise distinguished political career. That’s politics for you. It’s a bloodsport.

Anyway, we shall see what the future brings. I refuse to be fatalistic and call for the collapse of society. I have to put my faith in our system of government to truly provide the checks and balances it is designed to provide.

If there’s any silver lining to this night for me, it’s Nevada. We delivered the Silver State for Clinton. We also kept Harry Reid’s senate seat with the Democrats. In addition, we even won a few House seats. Those down-ticket races were crucial; especially given Clinton’s loss. We also legalized pot. Something tells me we’re going to need it.

The Democratic National Committee has some serious work to do in the next few weeks and months. It is high time for a purge and a real autopsy. The DNC must treat this election as an opportunity to learn from its mistakes. The answer does not lie in persons named Sanders or Warren, but it does lie in their core philosophies. The DNC lost a lot of blue-collar votes tonight. Promises of free college will not bring them back. I don’t know the answer, and neither does the DNC, obviously. But it does start with one, simple truth: embrace your liberal self.

To the Indiana Democratic Party: you are dead to me. DEAD. I’m not joking. For 10 years, you’ve consistently found all new and innovative ways to lose elections and look positively idiotic in the process. If your offices tomorrow morning aren’t cleared of every, single high-ranking official, I wash my hands of you. I can only think of one word to describe you: pathetic.

To my friends in the black community, Muslim community, Latino community, gay community; to women seeking health care who want to make their own medical decisions; and to my friends in the middle class, seeking a living wage, I say this: I stand with you. We will figure this out together.

P.S. – You are free to disagree with my point of view. You are free to share your point of view. But you will not gloat or spike the ball. Not on this page, not on my thread. I will not sanction such behavior. Real lives are in the balance. Please don’t treat it like a goddamned football game.

Leave a comment

Filed under analysis, politics

spoiler alert: i already know how the presidential election plays out tomorrow night.

TrumpHill_THIRD.jpg

In less than 48 hours, our long, national nightmare will be over.

We hope.

Tomorrow, Tuesday, Nov. 8, is Election Day. I’d like to believe we’ll know who’s president when we wake up Wednesday morning, but who the hell knows, since this election cycle has been anything but conventional.

Anyway, four years ago, I wrote a blog post predicting the electoral votes in chronological order. It was so much fun (and I was fairly accurate, thanks to my keen mind and statistical analysis), I decided to do it again. Of course, a month ago, my predictive modeling looked completely differently than it does today. Will the FBI farce play out at the polls? Possibly. Given that information (or lack thereof), I’ve decided to take a run at it again this year.

Let me preface this by saying: if there are any deviations from what I lay out here, it’s because the data was inaccurate…or I flipped a coin (I’m looking at you, Florida). Those deviations should scare Clinton more than Trump, too, but I’ll get into that later.

Remember, it takes 270 electoral votes (out of 538 total) to win the presidency. Just wanted to throw that out there in case you slept through that day of your high school civics class (or that episode of The West Wing). With that in mind, here goes…

In the Beginning…
When we all wake up tomorrow morning, here’s how the map of our great nation will look.

2016 Map_Blank.png

Isn’t it pretty? We’re unified, together, only state boundaries separating us. Yeah, by night’s end, we should knock that unity all to hell.

——————————————-

7 p.m. EST
Polls are closing in six states:
Georgia (16)
Indiana (11)
Kentucky (8)
South Carolina (9)
Vermont (3)
Virginia (13)

By 7:01 p.m. EST, I expect all the major news outlets to declare the red states for Trump. Vermont will be called for Clinton too, at this time. Virginia, while blue here, may take a little while to get there, but I haven’t seen anything take it out of her column yet.

2016 Map_700 pm.png

——————————————-

7:30 p.m. EST
Polls are closing in three states:
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
West Virginia (5)

West Virginia is Coal Country. It’s also Trump Country. It goes red, right away. Ohio will go red, too, but it might be late. Me, I think we’ll know fairly early about Ohio. And it’s going for Trump. North Carolina? Not so fast. It’s going to need a minute to get there.

2016 Map_730 pm.png

——————————————-

8 p.m. EST…Here comes the Big Haul!
Polls are closing in 17 states:
Alabama (9)
Connecticut (7)
Delaware (3)
District of Columbia (3)
Florida (29)
Illinois (20)
Maine (4)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (11)
Mississippi (6)
Missouri (10)
New Hampshire (4)
New Jersey (14)
Oklahoma (7)
Pennsylvania (20)
Rhode Island (4)
Tennessee (11)

Now, the map is starting to fill in! This is the first big haul of the night and should level things off for Clinton as many traditionally blue states come in. In fact, I expect Clinton to take the lead from Trump during this hour of coverage.

2016 Map_800 pm.png

You’ll notice Florida isn’t red or blue. That’s right. Settle in, kids. I think it’s going to be another bumpy ride in the Sunshine State! Yipeeee!! And yes, we’re still waiting on North Carolina, too.

——————————————-

8:30 p.m. EST: Arkansas Checks in
Polls are closing in :
Arkansas (6)

Seems hardly worth a whole lot of fanfare for one, puny state that we already know is going to Trump. But don’t be surprised if North Carolina’s on the board by now; and I expect it to go blue for Clinton.

2016 Map_830 pm.png

——————————————-

9 p.m. EST…Trump’s Last Stand (?)
Polls close in 13 states:
Arizona (11)
Colorado (9)
Kansas (6)
Louisiana (8)
Michigan (16)
Minnesota (10)
Nebraska (5)
New Mexico (5)
New York (29)
South Dakota (3)
Texas (38)
Wisconsin (10)
Wyoming (3)

This is probably the most predictable set of states, really. Texas is a red, red state. New York is a blue, blue state. What’s worth pointing out here is Texas represents Trump’s last shot at a monster state (”…ahem!” says Florida). Texas is Trump’s Alamo (ha!) of sorts. But, yes, Florida is still hanging out there at this hour and could—could—prove pivotal…but not without help.

At any rate, it will still be a bit of a nail-biter at this hour because Michigan might take its time coming in…causing the Clinton campaign to likely begin drinking heavily as they have to white-knuckle it for another hour.

2016 Map_900 pm.png

——————————————-

10 p.m. EST…Reply Hazy…Try Again
Polls close in four states:
Iowa (6)
Montana (3)
Nevada (6)
Utah (6)

Trump gets a trickle of votes here. Nevada is going to take a few more minutes past the 10 p.m. hour to make up its mind, I think. But by now, Michigan should be called for Clinton, so everyone in her camp gets their belts and shoelaces returned to them. Nevertheless, it’s still a tight one (on paper, at least).

2016 Map_1000 pm.png

——————————————-

11 p.m. EST…THIS IS THE HOUR WE ELECT A NEW PRESIDENT
Polls close in six states:
California (55)
Hawaii (4)
Idaho (4)
North Dakota (3)
Oregon (7)
Washington (12)

Hillary_Clinton_official_Secretary_of_State_portrait_crop.jpg

Hillary Clinton will become President-elect Clinton around 11 p.m. EST.

And the winner is…

The only states left blank on the map at this point are Alaska and (perhaps) Florida. But it’s all perfunctory at this point. Trump will be drawing dead.

The only real drama will be whether or not he concedes.

2016 Map_1100 pm.png

——————————————-

1 a.m. EST…oh yeah…Alaska
Polls close in one state:
Alaska (3)

Trump’s last gasp comes in the wee hours from our friends to the north in Seward’s Icebox. I also have a sinking hunch he’s going to wrest Florida away from Clinton, but it won’t really matter at this point. President-elect Clinton will be tapping her watch, waiting for Trump’s call.

2016 Map_LAST MAP 01.png

——————————————-

Reflections
A month ago, I wouldn’t have predicted this close a race. I think Trump got his ass handed to him in the debates. I think he’s completely outgunned on policy, issues and basic understanding of civics and the job of being president. But I’m also keenly aware people are voting in anger this year. Many of those people also are holding to the myth of Hillary Clinton as this force of evil—a myth largely concocted by a.m. talk radio shouters, Trumpian distortions and Fox News.

But everyone gets to vote and there are no rules on how one decides their votes.

And, let’s be honest: I could be completely wrong. Take a look at this map below. These are the last four swing states, in my estimation:

THE MAP TRUMP NEEDS.png

Remember when I talked about deviations and unpredictability? The importance of Virginia and North Carolina to both candidates cannot be understated. Nevada may or may not matter, but those two states that share a border on the East Coast are holding more cards than any other states. Watch what they do tomorrow night. If they go red, we could be looking at a Trump presidency.

That is no joke.

Happy voting, everyone!

By the way…in case you wondered what I use for my predictive modeling, I ain’t tellin’!

2 Comments

Filed under analysis, politics, Uncategorized

beware the ides of march…bernie.

Okay, so I was wrong. Again.

Before we start, let’s get the Republican side of this out of the way. We already know the story—Drumpf wins a bunch of states, Kasich wins his home state, Rubio was rejected by nearly EVERYONE in his home state and Cruz remains a smug, sweaty, chinless weasel. There. No need to talk about them anymore.

Moving on…

Ahead of tonight’s (rather undramatic) installment of America’s favorite reality show, Super Tuesday, I predicted Sanders would win Illinois and/or Ohio, but Clinton would carry the big prizes of the night: Florida, North Carolina and Ohio.

Clinton wins Ohio

Hillary Clinton’s Ohio victory might be the death blow for the Sanders campaign.

I was wrong.

Much to the chagrin of Sanders supporters—and shock, I’m assuming—it was all Clinton tonight. She locked down big wins in crucial swing states Florida, North Carolina and Ohio early Tuesday night, sparing a considerable amount of drama and taking the wind out of Bernie Sanders’ sails that were deflated of all that Michigan wind he gathered at his back a week ago. Clinton then went on to claim a close victory in her home state of Illinois and is clinging to a scant 1,500 vote lead in Missouri. We won’t call it a clean sweep, but it is a decisive night for Clinton. And one thing is perfectly clear: Hillary Clinton is going to win the Democratic Party nomination. Fair and square.

After the polls betrayed Clinton in Michigan last Tuesday, nobody knew what to expect tonight. Could the polls be believed after being so completely inaccurate in Michigan? Turns out, yes. The polls are to be believed.

Screen Shot 2016-03-16 at 2.46.08 AM.png

Source: CNN, FiveThirtyEight.com

Michigan was the outlier, not the beginning of a trend.

So, moving forward, what does this mean for the Democratic race to the nomination? It means Sanders is pretty much down to one bullet in the chamber. I don’t expect him to bow out of the race—and I don’t want him to do that—but would need to win every state by wide margins from this point forward. Even he knows the likelihood of that happening now is slim to none.

Make no mistake, though; Sanders still has a powerful voice in this campaign and can still motivate many people to champion his cause, but the million dollar question is will Sanders motivate them to get behind Clinton or not? He has said all along he would support Clinton if she wins the nomination. She hasn’t won it yet, so he should continue to fight the good fight, I say. But he and his supporters need to gear up for the inevitable. That doesn’t mean the Sanders message gets lost, though. In my mind, he’s already won the primary season. Sanders forced Clinton and the Democratic Party to pay attention to the left wing of the base; something party leadership seems wont to ignore and tamp down, sometimes.

No, party leadership did not rig the system against Sanders, so let’s put that one away for good. By my count, Clinton has pulled in about 2.5 million more votes than Sanders, thus far. I won’t call that a mandate, but it tells me the people have spoken.

That being said, I hope the Sanders and Clinton supporters can form a coalition come November and recognize their goals are closer than some realize. You say you want a revolution? Good. Then put it to work and carry the message forward, if not the candidate.

EDIT: According to MSNBC, here’s the delegate breakdown from last night.

CdqVaVtW4AAikKA.jpg

Leave a comment

Filed under analysis, politics

super tuesday, episode iii.

20140207091635-VoteForTheOtherGuy_indiegogo_cropToday is Super Tuesday, Episode III: Attack of the Drumpf. Unless there’s a big shakeup in Florida, the Republican nomination could be well in hand for a certain orange bully. The Democratic side is significantly more interesting, in the sense that nobody trusts any of the polling data after Michigan last week.

Here’s what I think is going to happen today…

First, for the Republicans
Although the races are going to tighten up, Trump will win Illinois, Florida, Missouri and North Carolina. John Kasich is going to win his home state of Ohio, thus, keeping himself alive in the hopes of a brokered convention. Cruz may steal a state (Missouri?), but Trump will still widen his lead.

The real news is it becomes a three-horse race, as Marco Rubio is going to lose his home state and be out of the running.

If Trump does, in fact, win the winner-takes-all state of Florida, he will essentially be daring the Republican Party to not give him the nomination.

This soap opera is far from over.

Speaking of Soap Operas, the Democrats!
Races in Illinois, Missouri and Ohio have tightened, so don’t be surprised if Sanders grabs one or two of these states. Clinton has a three-point lead in Illinois and Sanders is up by 1 point in Missouri. Both are well within the margins and could go in either direction. I think Sanders steals one or both.

Ohio is a bit of a wild card right now, if you ask me. Current polls show Clinton leading by 14 points, but I don’t trust it after Michigan last week. My gut tells me Clinton wins Ohio as well as Florida and North Carolina.

What does that mean for Sanders? Simple: not dead yet. Clinton will likely widen her delegate lead (actual delegates, so enough with the super delegate whining already, Bernie Bros!), but Sanders will still have enough in the tank to keep the campaign going.

While the Republican primaries are providing more salacious TV, the Democrats have a bit of a civil war brewing, too. It’ll be interesting to see how party leadership on both sides strives to achieve unity heading into November.

In the meantime, enjoy the drama. Tonight is going to feel as close to November election coverage as we’re going to get.

1 Comment

Filed under analysis, politics