Category Archives: reality TV

survivor recap: the war on christian.

Survivor_David_vs_Goliath

And then there were six. Seems like yesterday we were trying to learn the names of 20 new Survivor entrants, competing on the deck of a boat in Fiji. Now, 12 days before Christmas, we’re counting down to the season finale, where one of the six remaining players will be crowned Ultimate Survivor.

The vote on Night 35 truly made the most sense, even though it likely disappointed many fans of the game. Christian became that player everyone loves to watch. He’s quirky, unassuming, doesn’t always fit in, but altogether likable. In that way, he reminds us of ourselves. Christian also became the unlikeliest of dominant threats in this game, although, that’s probably because the typical Survivor competitor has evolved.

So Smart They're DumbGone are the days when big, burly, muscular players are seen as the greatest threats. That it took so long to realize muscle is only one, small part of this game is a bit shocking to me. Even calling this season David vs. Goliath was kinda dumb and forced, if you ask me. Filmmaker Mike himself would probably tell you he’s not truly a Goliath in his real life. A successful filmmaker? Yes, absolutely. But Spielberg level? C’mon. THAT’S a Goliath!

I digress…

But I will say Mike’s game play has been rock solid all along. He’s made very few missteps and has recognized where the true threats lie. Earning immunity last night emboldened his plan to take out a big threat. By turning his attentions to Christian and away from Nick, Mike also flushed an immunity idol. That could burn Nick in the next Tribal Council.

Before we rank the final six players, I did want to bring something up that you probably hadn’t heard about. Did you know Angelina gave up a chance at immunity to get a bag of rice for the tribe? I mean, she doesn’t want to brag about it and she DEFINITELY doesn’t want any reciprocity from it, but you know, she wants you know what she did for you and that you TOTALLY don’t owe her anything for it. #puke

survivor-probst-rice

Here, Angelina. Here’s your bag of rice. Now maybe that will shut you up for once.

What an asshole. What an absolute asshole that woman is. Who do you think you’re fooling, Angelina? Seriously! You’ve been trading on that one moment for how many days now? And as much as you’d like people to believe this was part of some big strategy of yours, it wasn’t. Not even a little. It was a boastful move that did absolutely nothing—NOTHING!—to advance your position in the game. Really, it was self serving as much as anything else. And you proved how petty you are about it by cooking “revenge rice.” So, really, Angelina, cut the shit already. That move was all about you and everyone knows it. Quit being such an asshole about it.

Now then…

The Final Six.
Anything can happen and I have no earthly idea who’s going to win. I’d say there are three players with a legitimate shot at it, one is a maybe and one is definitely a ‘no’. Before we get to that, I want to underscore how impressive this entire season has been for game play. With the exception of a handful of players, the contestants have been smart, strategic and competitive.

Most of all, I appreciate that they moved beyond the emotional aspect too many players bring into the game. Most of the players understand it’s a game and it’s not really personal. Here’s to hoping that lasts to the end and we don’t get some whiny nonsense about someone’s hurt fee-fees over getting voted out. Grow up, you big baby!

There’s also been tremendous balance after the merge. Thus far, no one has won individual immunity more than once. That’s likely to change now that we’re down to six, but it’s an impressive stat in David vs. Goliath.

The Three to Beat
Survivor MikeSchool of Rock Mike
He’s been a quietly fierce player of this game. He’s controlled several votes at Tribal Council and has successfully kept his name off the parchment. And he just won immunity, too.

That’s a fairly impressive résumé right there. On top of that, he’s built alliances across tribes and played them to his advantage. He has a compelling shot with this jury.

Survivor DavieDavie
A behind-the-scenes beast in this game. Davie’s the quiet, smiling assassin this season. Along with Nick and Carl, Davie helped orchestrate one of the most elaborate blindsides in Survivor history when they knocked out SWAT Dan.

His alliance with Nick has been critical to his success, but that’s part of navigating a strong social game. And let’s not forget his nose for finding hidden idols.

Survivor KaraKara
From the beginning, I found Kara to be a sharp, focused player. She absolutely used Dan and who can blame her? He basically threw himself at her like a loyal puppy dog. Kara was the brains of that operation; so brainy that she never looked back once he got booted out.

If anything, Dan on the jury works for her. I’m sure he’ll vote for her if she makes it to the Final Tribal. Along with jury management, Kara’s been tough in challenges and smart with her votes. Also, she’s avoided being on the tip of the spear.

A Puncher’s Chance
Survivor NickNick
He’s been the OG conniver from Day One, setting an early alliance with Christian and later bonding with Mike. Both pairings worked to his advantage. But I’m not sure he’s done enough yet to win this game. Compared to Mike, Davie and Kara, Nick is a distant fourth. Again, another smart player who’s received no votes.

I’m not sure that’s to be lauded, though. After all, everyone ganged up on Christian over three separate tribal councils. It’s no wonder Nick hasn’t received any votes yet. Now, though, he’s exposed. Sink or swim time, Nick.

Survivor AlisonAlison
She’s had more lives than a cat in this game. Always perceived as a threat over others, Alison has seen her name written down at the past three tribal councils. I suppose there’s credit to be given when you continue to cheat death, but is that really about strategic game play? Not so much.

She did win the first immunity challenge this season, but hasn’t done much to personally influence the outcome of a vote. Like Nick, she needs some big, bold moves at the end to have a shot at the million.

The Survivor Stooge
Survivor AngelinaAngelina and her Goddamn Bag of Rice
I’d be shocked if Angelina didn’t make it all the way to the final tribal council. Whether there are two or three finalist, having Angelina sit next to you only increases your odds of winning since I doubt anyone will give her a vote. Maybe SWAT Dan, if Kara’s not in the final tribal council. But after that, who? And more importantly, WHY?!?!?! Don’t get me wrong, Angelina is a smart player…at least she was until the merge, then better strategists took over. I seriously doubt she wins the million dollars. However, if the same rules apply this season as last, Angelina could be casting the deciding vote.

I guess we’ll find out next week. See you next Wednesday! And by the way…did you hear? Angelina gave up a shot at immunity to get a bag of rice! #PUKE #PUKE #PUKE

angelina

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survivor recap: hoisted on her own petard.

Survivor_David_vs_Goliath

Okay, it’s been awhile since I’ve written about Survivor. I took an unintended hiatus for a few weeks and let you all down. I know. I suck. We’ll work through it.

That being said, let’s get caught up by talking about last week’s episode.

Gabby 02Gabby Makes a Bold Move
After promptly orchestrating the ouster of Trucker Carl, it was Gabby’s time to shine. She’s been a smart player all along, but her greatest strength is self-awareness. She recognized her tribemates would always regard her as an also-ran, so long as Christian is still in the game. That’s why she rightfully realized after Carl’s vote that her only path forward was to frag her closest ally: Christian.

To be fair, it’s not a genius plan and even Gabby would likely admit that, given Christian’s been cheating death so many times at Tribal Council (including one of the most insane combination of vote stealing, idol-playing and idol-nullifying combos we’ve ever seen). Everyone knows Christian is the man to beat. This diminutive brainiac from the original David Tribe is the true Goliath on the island and everyone knows it.

The fact that Christian has survived this long is testament to his game play, his social skills and his ability to sniff out a blindside. That’s why Gabby’s sudden turn this week appeared to be the final nail in Christian’s coffin.

Not so fast.

Gabby TorchNothing is ever so clean on Survivor, is it? The one, undeniable truth in Survivor is also true in the mafia: if everyone keeps their mouths shut and no one rats, you can get away with anything. The other undeniable truth: no one can keep their damn mouths shut. Davie’s whispering campaign was all Christian needed to get his guard up. And, at Tribal Council, Christian read the room perfectly and, in the end, Gabby was hoisted on her own petard.

Even though it may have felt like a dirty double-cross to some, I admired Gabby’s move. It was bold and it was necessary if she wanted to make a big, meaningful play that she could put on her Survivor resume. Unfortunately for her, she was too close to her target and became fodder herself.

Survivor Angelina 02Shut up, Angelina. Just. Shut. UP!
The reward challenge provided the obligatory “visit from home” moments that make people weep like little babies. I’m certain the emotion is real, so I shouldn’t make fun of it too much. The food aspect of this reward is probably more meaningful in the long run, but I imagine a visit from loved ones after being cut off for more than a month provides a welcome respite from the game.

And, of course, Angelina—obnoxious, self-absorbed Angelina—found a way to make this challenge about herself, yammering to her mother about how she saved her tribe from starvation with her big move of sacrificing immunity for rice. Shut up, Angelina, would you, please? Just SHUT. UP!

For one, your “big move” falls into the same bucket as all the big moves of preening jackasses like Clueless Kass from the Cagayan and Cambodia seasons. What you did was a grand gesture. And totally meaningless. It did not advance you in the game. It did not endear you to your tribemates. It did absolutely nothing. It was a true, Clueless Kass sort of move. For those who don’t remember, Kass, fancied herself a brilliant Survivor player and threw her alliances under the bus multiple times, claiming she was “shaking things up,” or some bullshit like that. She made big, gaudy moves that ultimately did absolutely nothing to improve her lot in the game.

Yes, big moves make a world of difference. But those big moves have to advance your position. If they don’t, it’s nothing but noise. All hat, no cattle. And that’s precisely what Angelina’s immunity-for-rice exchange amounts to. Yet, she can’t stop running her mouth about how awesome a move it was to whomever will freakin’ listen.

Well, listen to this, Angelina: you’re the stooge they’re going to drag to the end of the game. You know why? Because no one will give you a vote. Your only value, moving forward, is you will award someone $1 million; either on the jury or as a tiebreaker. You are an asterisk in this game.

Handicapping the Players
We’re down to crunch time. Right now, here’s how I would rate the remaining players’ chances of winning:

Odds-on Favorite
Kara. She has jury votes. She’s been a crafty player. She’s won immunity. Kara’s playing a complete game and no one even perceives her as the obvious threat she is. I like her chances.

Hope is Waning
Christian. Unless he wins immunity the rest of the way, he’s toast. Nobody wants to face him in the end. They’ll vote him out the first chance they get.

Angelina. Say hello to this season’s drag-along stooge. She’s a smart player, but not as smart as she thinks she is.

Dark Horse
Alison. She’s been an against-all-odds player for quite a bit of this season. Seems she’s always in the mix to receive votes, but always eeks it out.

The Sneaky-Sneaks
Nick. With the exception of winning immunity, Nick is a smart, sneaky player. I don’t think he’s done enough to win over jury votes yet, though.

Davie. Davie’s played a relatively quiet game to this point. If he can orchestrate one or two big moves moving forward, he could distinguish himself as a legitimate threat.

Mike. Mike seems the least threatening of all remaining players, but he may be the most conniving and least trustworthy. He’ll turn on you in a heartbeat if you’re not careful. I mean that as a compliment. Don’t get caught watching the paint dry on this dude.

Survivor Mike.jpg

 

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survivor–david vs. goliath recap: jeremy spoke in class today.

jeremy-crawford-natalie-cole-survivor-david-vs-goliathPlaying Survivor must be exhausting. Because sometimes, these early episodes are equally exhausting for the viewers. It’s only Day 9 by the time Tribal Council No. 2 rolls around and already, players have end-game strategy on their minds. Last night, that meant the enjoyable and loquacious Jeremy was sent packing over Natalie before he had a chance to become a real threat. Seems the Goliath Tribe is willing to put up with an annoyance more than take the chance on letting Jeremy stick around. I suppose that’s a fair consideration, but give credit to Natalia for calling that shot and putting Jeremy in play. After all, Natalie was the obvious choice to go home.

How Did We Get Here?
The David Tribe finally notch a victory over Goliath with a nerd challenge simple puzzle. Naturally, Christian and Gabby—the most adorable couple in Survivor history ever—were at the ready to solve it. Over on the Goliath side, it was over before it even started. Natalie and whomever did the puzzle with her were doomed. Doomed!

I can’t decide if thinking about end-game strategy on Day 8 or 9 is smart or stupid. We already know Survivor is made up of both long-game and short-game maneuvers to get to the end. But how do you decide who should stay and who should go? Do you remove “weak” people or the ones who don’t play nice first? Not really, no. Alliances form quickly and one or two self-anointed masterminds begin labeling the sneaks vs. the layabouts (or some such nomenclature).

A Line in the Sand
Over on the David Tribe, Nick and Mason have quickly aligned in their Mason-Dixon Alliance, which proves one thing about today’s Survivor players: they are savvy enough to know hashtagable nicknames are a readymade way to become popular among fans and a great way to generate buzz. I give credit to Nick for that one. He knows how to play to the camera without being too obvious about it.

0bdc2f727c6f99ee_svr37_800x1000_jeremycrawfordJeremy Spoke in Class Today
Over on Goliath, Jeremy worked hard—too hard, apparently—to stand out as an influential player. His sneaking around and gathering of information was smart. His mistake was making it too obvious. Jeremy had a lot to say to everyone about his own game play. Sure, it makes sense to try and form an alliance by sharing information about Dan’s hidden immunity idol. What Jeremy didn’t realize is telling people he found it while rummaging through Dan’s belongings exposed himself as a threat. Perhaps a better play would’ve been waiting to share that information when it mattered more.

If there’s a lesson to be learned here, it’s that a good player needs to exercise restraint as much as anything else. After losing to David, the Goliath Tribe made a unanimous decision that dragging Natalie along is better than running through the game with a gamer like Jeremy.

Personally speaking, I think they made a very bad move booting Jeremy. For one, Natalie Napalm? Yeah, no. You’re not dropping napalm, Natalie. You’re just not fitting in. You were spared because Jeremy is the stronger player. The mistake for Goliath is not recognizing they could be creating a monster. Then again, perhaps it doesn’t matter as much as they think.

The “Showmance”
But I do think the Goliath Tribe is making a MASSIVE error by keeping the “showmance” of Dan and Kara intact. Couples in Survivor are a dangerous thing. They are an inseparable, two-vote bloc that cannot be taken down. Once it takes root, the showmance grows like a weed. The best thing for Goliath—and every other player—is to break that shit up pronto!

Even Nick over at the David Tribe recognizes Christian and Gabby are getting too chummy. They truly are two peas in a pod and are totally adorable. But in the context of Survivor, I’d be working to remove one of them. Nick already sees that and will allow his David tribemates to continue believing Gabby is a threat.

On the Chopping Block
Because of what we saw tonight, I’d be shocked to see Gabby, Natalie or Bi make it to the merge. We’ve already discussed the issues with Gabby and Natalie, but what about Bi? I think that knee injury is going to prove to be a liability for her. It’s still too early to tell who’s a legitimate threat to win the game, though. Nick might be a finalist, simply because he seems to have a stronger knack for the underlying strategery of Survivor that others may not. Meaning: he’s a sly, subtle conniver. Christian can solve puzzles like nobody’s business, but he’s yet to display the street smarts he needs to advance. i still enjoy watching him play the game, though.

pro69high.viwindow0Goliath’s Quiet Mastermind: Natalia
Natalia (not Natalie) over on the Goliath side of things has also shown her ability to move the chess pieces around the board. Wasn’t she the one who pushed the hardest to oust Jeremy tonight? It was a bold move and a good move. Does it make the tribe stronger? She convinced everyone that matters less than people think and she was right.

Given how often Survivor shuffles the deck and moves players around, the idea of remaining a single, cohesive tribe doesn’t seem to matter much anymore. And that’s a good thing, by the way. As a fan, I always hated how tribal alliances played too much of a premium after a merge. It’s better to see players in an individual game early; makes things more interesting for the viewers.

What’s Next?
The tease for next week’s episode appears to shuffle tribes. This could be interesting since there’s an odd number of players. How will the alliances hold up? Will this split expose previously invulnerable players? Can this new development provide a much-needed reset for Natalie? Also, Bi’s knee (bee’s knees?) is likely to be a factor. Her game may end much sooner than she’d like.

Stay tuned.

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survivor: ghost island prediction.

Ghost IslandTonight’s season finale of Survivor will bring to a close one of the least interesting seasons of the reality show we’ve had in awhile. Survivor: Ghost Island started off promising enough: 20 castaways, no returning players and a slew of second-chance immunity idols, game advantages and tribal council extra votes. It was billed as a season to wash away past sins. It amounted to a season of predictability, passive game play and an overall convoluted mess of middle-ground personalities seemingly locked into a battle for third place.

Throughout the entire season, players Dominick and Wendell have called virtually all the shots without the slightest challenge and it makes no sense; none at all. It hasn’t been this predictable and this boring since Survivor: Worlds Apart, where selfish weirdo Mike Holloway walked away the winner.

What Went Wrong?
Too many gimmicks, that’s what. Too many diversions and distractions have made the game nearly impossible to play. Sure, one or two immunity idols makes sense. But the inclusion of Ghost Island threw the entire game out of balance. I’m all for the occasional tribe swaps and whatnot, but every week a new twist?

That took away from the game play, if you ask me. I mean, where are the blindsides? Where’s the cutthroat game play? Where are the vicious personal battles? In other words, where’s the game of Survivor? Instead of all the ups, downs, ins and outs that make Survivor fun and interesting, we’re left with six pairs of khaki pants, all vying for your vote as Best Pair of Khakis. I want a do-over, but I won’t get one. So, let’s just get on with it and decide who’s going to take home the million dollars tonight.

The Likely Winner is…
Domenick. He’s been in control since Day One (well, sort of). He’s been conniving, scheming, plotting and planning. He’s been moving all the pieces around the board on his own. And he’s also got himself an immunity idol or two. The fact that he engineered a finale with a bunch of also-rans means he should win. Unless, of course, the also-rans pull off a legitimate blindside.

Finalist with a Chance.
Wendell. He’s smart. He’s likable. He’s athletic. But he’s attached himself to Dominick from the beginning. If he’s in the Final Tribal Council with Domenick, Wendell comes in second. It’s as simple as that.

How the Hell Did You Get Here????
Laurel. She is a promising player who hitched her wagon to Dom and Wendell. At multiple points throughout the season, Laurel had chances to assert herself, take control of the game and eliminate some of her biggest threats. She balked. Every single time, she balked. To make such a move right now would be expected and very nearly pointless.

Could’ve Been
Angela. She was a tough competitor whose back was to the wall from the very start. Seems she could never get a true alliance working. But she’s hung in there…and she ate a shit ton of really gross stuff to win immunity. That, alone, should earn her high marks. But not enough to win.

The Trouble with Donathan
Easily my favorite player in the game from the start because he was the little engine that could. Donathan’s trajectory in Survivor emulates with many viewers who like to root for the misfits and the underdogs. Underneath his wide-eyed, homespun demeanor, though, is a fierce, vicious Survivor contestant. Unfortunately, his strategy is to throw gasoline on the campfire and watch it burn. Still, I like the kid. But he seems to have no winning strategy.

Sebastian: Half Man, Half Alien
Seriously, that dude looks like an alien to me. And how the hell did he last this long. Of all the Top Six, Sebastian seems to be riding coattails. He hasn’t done much to distinguish himself in the game. I guess that’s why he’s still there, right? Nice guy, but not a Survivor champion.

We shall see if I’m correct.

And yes, I still believe i could win this game.

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survivor: game changers season wrap-up.

Logo_MainPage_SliderAll’s well that ends well. That was my initial reaction to the outcome of Survivor: Game Changers. A great player beat another great player for the title of Soul Survivor. Having it come down to a Final Three usually guarantees that some of the best players will remain in the game. Sure, many great ones get knocked out early (Malcolm, Ozzy, Cirie), but we still have Sarah vs. Culpepper vs. Troyzan. That’s a pretty strong final three.

S34_Sarah_Cast_Photo1Sarah Deserved to Win
Absolutely. Unequivocally. Sarah played a smart, patient social game. Her takedown of Sierra might be the most legendary, in my mind, because she first convinced Sierra to will her the Legacy Advantage and then stuck a knife in her back. That is EPIC Survivor game play, if you ask me!

Is she the best winner ever? Who cares?!?! But the answer is ‘no’. She did what she had to do to win this season of Survivor. That required building strategic alliances, but it also meant Sarah had to gamble a bit on her choices at Tribal Council. With the exception of Hali and Cirie, Sarah was on the right side of every vote for the remaining jury members. In some cases, she took them down. In other cases, she played along. Taking out Sierra, Andrea and Michaela were probably her best moves because they were strategic threats all along.

brad2However…
Culpepper deserved to win, too. One of the unfortunate realities of Survivor is physically dominant players get very little respect from the jury. Culpepper joins a fairly distinguished group of players who were challenge beasts when it counted but couldn’t take home the title of Sole Survivor.

Here’s what I mean:
Colby Donaldson. Dude was unstoppable the first time he played in the Australian Outback season, setting the bar at five consecutive immunity challenge wins…and lost to Tina Wesson, 4-3.

terry-deitz-7-1_thumbTerry Deitz. He was a brusk dude at times during the Panama season, but got hosed when he lost the final immunity challenge with three players in the game. He was the most dominant player that season and didn’t even have a seat at the table. Aras Baskauskas backed his way to what I consider the least deserved Survivor victory in the history of the show. I’m of a mind that Terry’s loss is the reason we now have three-person Final Tribal Councils.

Ozzy Lusth. In fairness, Ozzy did lose to a smart, athletic and strategic player in Yul, but still…dude won FIVE OUT OF SIX IMMUNITY CHALLENGES! That’s got to count for something! Ozzy lost by one vote and, sadly, he’s never gotten that close to winning ever again. He’s been in the game for more days than any other player, but he always gets bounced early because of his physical prowess.

441256dd0c7930ea857d205e02937fefThe Fatal Flaw
Outside of being challenge beasts, Culpepper and Colby share the distinction of making a fatal flaw right at the end of the game: voting out the wrong player. In orchestrating a vote to knock out Tai, Culpepper let his heart rule his head. There was no way Troyzan could beat him. None. I think he knew that. But a smart guy like Culpepper should’ve recognized Sarah as the greater threat than Tai and taken her out.

Colby made the very same mistake in the Australian Outback. Tina Wesson—another undeserving champion, in my eyes—sidled up to Colby all season long and used him as a human shield. She couched it as a team mentality, but she was playing him and he didn’t recognize it. By virtue of wearing the Immunity Necklace, Colby lulled himself into believing he didn’t have to think as hard about the jury. It cost him dearly when he wrote down Keith’s name in the penultimate Tribal Council. Had he taken out Tina, he would’ve won.

If Terry had a flaw, it was personality. He locked horns with players that season (Cirie and Aras, mostly). But he didn’t even get the chance to take it to a jury.

the-best-moments-froAs for Ozzy, his fatal flaw is he never adapted after his first season playing Survivor. He continued to be a physical threat and one of the best providers at camp. But he never learned to strategize and work alliances better. He simply relied on his physical prowess to get through the day. While I certainly believe physically dominant players get the short shrift at times, they also have to recognize this and work the social aspect of Survivor to compensate.

To that end, Culpepper adapted and made it through most of the 39 days before he kinda went psycho. His treatment of Tai was both creepy and disturbing. In fairness to Culpepper, he recognized it, owned it and apologized for it at the reunion show. I’m sure a big part of that was his competitive nature as well as genuine frustration with Tai. I’m not sure what it is about Tai, but he must make his fellow Survivor players insane, because he left people feeling the same way during his previous season, Brains vs. Beauty vs. Brawn.

The only one for whom I feel any level of disappointment, it’s Ozzy. This was likely his last time playing Survivor and he went out getting blindsided. It’s a pity, but he joins a long line of great players who never won.

survivor25_malcolm_652Best Player Who Didn’t Make the Merge
Even though Sandra seems like the obvious choice here, I’m going with Malcolm. He’s got a better all-around game than Sandra, in my mind, because he can win challenges and build alliances at camp. Believe me, I take nothing away from Sandra, but the reality is she’s a one-trick pony in Survivor. To her credit, she is an expert at the social game. But I think a champion should have more than one club in his or her bag.

It’s also worth noting the only reason Malcolm got voted out when he got voted out this season is because J.T. was a complete screw-up at Tribal Council and tipped his hand to Culpepper, leading to Tai playing his Immunity Idol for Sierra.

Unfortunately for Malcolm, he aligned with some ridiculously bad players this season. If he gets another shot at Survivor, it’ll only be tougher for him to build alliances. People know he’s a threat.

jt-thomas-survivor

(Photo by Timothy Kuratek/CBS via Getty Images)

Speaking of Dumb Players…
J.T. is fast moving up my list of Dumbest Players in Survivor History. I swear, he’s doing everything he can to prove his Survivor: Tocantins victory was a complete fluke. He played a solid game that season, but I still question his unanimous victory over Stephen Fishbach, who was a very smart and crafty player.

After Tocantins, J.T. has done everything he can to deconstruct his own championship. Remember Heroes vs. Villains? When J.T. had the great idea of giving his Immunity Idol to Russell Hantz—who was on the opposing tribe!—as a means of building an alliance later in the game? Yeah, how’d that work out for you, J.T.? And then, when he had a chance to redeem himself this season, he openly betrayed his alliance by trying to curry favor with Culpepper. AT TRIBAL COUNCIL IN FRONT OF EVERYONE! Dude, what were you thinking?!?!

J.T.’s sin is one committed by many players. He was thinking too far ahead of the game and ignoring the most immediate fire that needed extinguishing. He crossed the wrong player (Sandra) and it cost him.

2017-03-30T00-29-23.466Z--1280x720_711x400_910084675878Craftiest Move of the Game
Speaking of Sandra, she proved her bona fides by exposing a growing rift between Michaela and J.T. and using it to her advantage. Remember the sugar incident? To this day, I don’t know how Sandra ate all that sugar without puking her guts out, but it exemplified her ability to seize upon an advantage in the game. She knew J.T. already had a personal beef with Michaela over the sugar. By misleading J.T. to believe Michaela ate all the sugar, it fed J.T.’s obsession to vote out Michaela and take his eye off the ball.

One might argue Sandra didn’t need to go to such lengths to get rid of J.T., but the point is she saw an opportunity to take advantage and tilt the game in her favor where no one else did. That is the mark of a smart player.

Debbie-1Worst Player Ever
This season’s Worst Player Ever Award (first time we’re doing this) goes to none other than Debbie. She rivals #CluelessKass as the most obnoxious, most unnecessarily arrogant, most self-UNaware, most self-absorbed load on two feet to ever play this game. With the exception of getting Ozzy out of the game, Debbie’s time on the island must’ve been an absolute nightmare for her fellow players. Strategically speaking, nothing she said or did made sense. Remember when she “acted drunk” at the merge? …the hell was THAT?!?! How on earth does that advance your lot in the game, you wackadoodle? Or, prior to that, when she went apeshit bonkers on Culpepper? And then insisted it was all an act? Mmm-hmm. Sure it was, Debbie. Sure it was.

Yes, orchestrating the vote to blindside Ozzy out was a smart move, but she screwed the pooch by overplaying her hand and burning her second-vote advantage.

That was dumb for two reasons:
1) You already had the numbers to get him out. Even if the plan backfires, you can lay low and use the advantage later when you need it.

2) Win or lose, you’ve shown everyone your hand—Ozzy included—and now he knows you were out to get him the whole time. That’s just bad jury management, man!

How do I know I was right? Debbie got bounced out the very next Tribal Council. In this game, Debbie with an advantage or power of any sort is like giving a monkey a blow torch: he’s gonna burn shit down and probably hurt himself in the process. That’s exactly how Debbie plays Survivor. Unpredictability only works when you have a strategy no one else can see and can’t predict. Debbie is just a nutbar. Even SHE doesn’t know where she’s going!

taiclimbIn Defense of Tai
Tai is a player I can’t help but like. He seems like a goodhearted guy. In the game of Survivor, he’s a decent competitor; better than people want to admit. Unlike Sarah, he did win individual immunity. His ability to sniff out hidden Immunity Idols is positively Russell Hantzian. To me, those are some pretty strong credentials for his gameplay. Where Tai blows it is his inability to articulate a strategy. He freestyles a bit too much and is therefore an unreliable ally. I’m sure that’s what frustrated Culpepper.

I also think he screwed up his own game by sharing information about his two idols. Sure, he saved Aubry and led to Cirie’s ouster, but he should’ve kept those both to himself.

SURVIVOR game changers aubry eyerollMy Favorite Player
Aubry is easily in my Top Three Survivor Players list. I think she’s one of the smartest, most mentally dialed-in players we’ve had in the game. But, for whatever reason, she just couldn’t get any traction this year and she knew it. Being on the wrong side of so many votes had to be frustrating, but she hung in there right to the bitter end; even winning immunity once! I hope she comes back and has a bit more luck next time.

lfsfu0hrA Word About Michaela
Michaela could very easily become one of my favorite players. She’s very close to it right now for the simple fact that she understands Survivor the same way I understand Survivor. She called out her fellow jurors for displaying any hurt feelings about getting voted out or getting blindsided or getting backstabbed. It’s part of the game! And the only reason those people bitch is because they got backstabbed first. Michaela’s like me when people bloviate about “integrity” in Survivor: I roll my eyes at that nonsense.

Approach to Survivor aside, Michaela is a smart, strategic player, but I think she got swept up into Cirie’s aura this season; which is easy to let happen. She’s certainly not the first. But playing from under Cirie’s wing didn’t allow Michaela to stretch out and show everyone just how strategic a threat she is to go with her athletic ability in challenges.

To Michaela’s credit, she knows her flaws. She allows her emotions to get the better of her and it ends up costing her. If you listened to her during the reunion show, she even talked about how she learned the game is more than just challenges and votes. If she gets a third chance to play—and I hope she does—I think she could win the whole thing.

Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers
All right, Survivor. You’re trying too hard now. I think we’re going to see some interesting players next season, but let’s cut the cutesy nonsense, eh?

See you in the fall with more Survivor chatter, kids.

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survivor finale prediction: someone will win, but who?

Game-Changers-e1486573854660Yep, it’s already the end. Seems like we just got re-acquainted with these 20 former players; some we missed, some we wish would never come back.

So, who’s going to be crowned Ultimate Survivor tonight? Good question. The remaining six players are cagey veterans of the game; three of whom have made it all the way to Final Tribal Council in previous seasons. But when it comes to crowning a winner, it’s almost more important to analyze the jury than the players.

Jeff-snuffing-torchThe Jury
In order, it’s: Hali, Ozzy, Debbie, Zeke, Sieerra, Andrea and Michaela. Three more to come tonight for a total of 10. In a Final Tribal of three players, it takes at least four votes to win Survivor. Does anyone have four votes out of these seven? Honestly, it’s too difficult to know. But I’ll take a stab at guessing for whom (of the remaining six) these seven would vote.

Hali—She’s been on the jury awhile now. I could see her going with Culpepper, even though he did vote her out.

Ozzy—Tough one. Cirie, maybe? The person who orchestrated his ouster is on the jury, so he may go with whom he thinks is the next best player. But if Ozzy thinks athleticism matters more, he might go with Sarah or Culpepper…even Tai could get a vote here (but I doubt it).

Debbie—Culpepper or Sarah, leaning toward Sarah; just because she may have an axe to grind with Culpepper.

Zeke—Sarah. Even though she had a hand in voting him out.

Sierra—Culpepper. She was in his back pocket all along.

Andrea—Tough one, here. Maybe Cirie.

Michaela—Cirie. She worked hard to pull Michaela in. I don’t see Michaela betraying that.

Survivor-Game-Changers-Finale-PRThe Final Six
Who’s odds-on favorite to win? No idea, I’ll rank them in order of how I think things go tonight.

Tai—Though I hope I’m wrong, I have a sinking feeling Tai’s going to do something classically stupid to get himself bounced before the Final Four.

Aubry—I think she’s got a great shot at being at the Final Tribal again, because she’s yet to make a really big move. Her next target has got to be Cirie.

Troyzan—He’s been floating along this entire game on borrowed time. He’s got his idol to play, which could hurt one of the big players. Can he win? Well, if he goes on a run at the end, he could.

Cirie—The sneakiest player left in the game. She has almost no shot at winning immunity in any challenge (unless it’s a quiz or something). The rest of the players should bounce her immediately before she has a chance to talk her way out of last week’s Tribal Council fiasco. If they don’t vote her out when they get the chance, she’s going to win.

Culpepper—His back has been to the wall for quite a bit of this game, but he’s avoided the chopping block. So far. After Cirie, I think everyone’s most afraid of Culpepper going to the end. He’ll get votes. Can he win? Yes. But he’s got the biggest target on his back.

Survivor-Game-Changers-2017-Spoilers-Week-10-Sneak-Peek-17-550x310Officer Sarah—For my money, the best player this season, so far. If she makes it to the end, I think she could beat anyone; including Culpepper and Cirie. But if she’s smart, she bounces them and takes Tai and Aubry so they can be runners up again.

My Final Three Prediction
Sarah, Culpepper and Troyzan.

aubry-bracco-survivor-kaoh-rong-winner-620x360What Aubry Needs to do to Win
Because she’s my favorite player, I’ve given this some thought. She needs to win a couple more immunity challenges, just to beef up her résumé. Then she needs to vote out Cirie, Sarah and Culpepper. She’d be sitting at the end with Tai and Troyzan. That’s her best shot at winning.

Who Will Win
I’m betting on Culpepper or Sarah. But who knows? Tune in tonight!

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survivor recap: go fish???

Logo_MainPage_SliderRemember last week, when I said we were heading toward all holy hell breaking out at an upcoming Tribal Council? Welp, we got it! With so many advantages, immunity idols and sneaky players floating around, it was only a matter of time before something broke and turned into a Jerry Springer episode. But before we get to that, let’s first mourn the loss of one of the players who truly had a shot at winning: Andrea.

She fought off Jeff Probst’s torch snuffer (that’s not a euphemism) twice in the past and maneuvered her way into a power position in the game. She was calling the shots and building a reputation as a gamer. But, if being a fan of Survivor has taught me anything, it’s that an alliance of five is held together with Scotch tape and hope. They are always much easier to break apart than hold together.

Vo_andrea_gcFor all of Andrea’s strengths in the game, she (and the other players) seem completely oblivious to the fact that Cirie is running circles around the rest of the players…and it cost Andrea dearly. But it wasn’t just Cirie who fragged Andrea. Sarah made a strong-yet-predictable move in pushing Andrea out of the game, too. Sarah’s been in a power position for a few tribals now. She rightfully recognized Andrea as a threat.

Though I have to admit I found it slightly shocking that the alliance of five—Andrea, Aubry, Cirie, Michaela and Sarah—broke up during this vote. It would’ve made more sense to give Culpepper the boot. He’s a perceived threat and did not have the immunity necklace around his neck. That belonged to the incomparable Aubry (full disclosure: my favorite player). The stars were perfectly aligned for the five to stick together for at least one more vote.

lfsfu0hr.pngWhat the Hell was That, Michaela?
Before going too far, I want to throw something out there: what the hell was Michaela’s plan in telling Culpepper to “go fish?” Seriously, what was that supposed to accomplish? For someone whom I thought was a smart player, Michaela’s done a lot of things this season that don’t make a lot of sense.

The fact that she’s made it this far in the game isn’t testimony to her game play. It actually speaks to her poor attitude. If I’m on that island, I want to be sitting next to her at the Final Tribal Council because I’d be certain she wouldn’t get any votes. Being an arrogant, mouthy, selfish ball hog doesn’t make you a champion. It makes you an insurance policy for other players. Cirie recognized that right away and seduced Michaela the first chance she got. And Michaela bought it hook, line and sinker.

Jury Strategery
Even though I love the drama of watching an alliance collapse upon itself, it didn’t make much strategic sense. Perhaps it’s about positioning for the jury or something, but even then, did it have to be right now? Looking at the current jury, Culpepper has probably only one vote in his favor (Sierra). He’s written Andrea’s name down three times. I doubt she’s going to reward that; especially since he didn’t orchestrate her ouster.

It’s pointless to speculate on the jury right now, though. Who knows what they’ll decide in the final Tribal Council? My only hope is they’re not big babies about solid game play. If a jury member holds a grudge over being blindsided, that jury member doesn’t belong there. Blindsides are a big part of winning strategy.

SurvivorGameChangers_TribalCouncilTribal Council Chaos
More on the jury later. We haven’t even discussed the last Tribal Council, which turned into one of the most revealing councils of the season. Culpepper winning immunity on Day 35 was big, although I don’t think it was certain that he’d get voted off the island; not with players like Cirie and Sarah in the eye of the storm. But his immunity win did force an already fragmented alliance to either band together or fall apart.

True to form, it fell apart. And that’s not very surprising, when you consider how it all played out.

With Culpepper wearing the immunity necklace, Sarah’s game play suddenly comes into focus a bit more for everyone. People took note of her feigned shock over Sierra’s vote a couple Tribals prior. Is Sarah playing to the jury? To Sierra? What’s up with that? It didn’t take long for Cirie to sort out that Sarah was legit. So why is it taking so long for everyone else to catch on that Cirie is a major threat?

After that last Tribal Council, though, I can’t imagine anyone is going to trust Cirie too much. Prior to going into Tribal Council, Cirie and Sarah seemed to be colluding to vote out Tai. Or was it Aubry? Now, I can’t remember, but for whom they were planning to vote was less important than what Sarah did next: she gave Cirie her secret “steal a vote” advantage as a show of trust. In the moment—and even right now—that made no sense to me. I’ve always been of a mind that if you’re holding any sort of advantage, you never let it go. Ever. Because the moment you hand it over to an opponent, it will be used against you. Perhaps Sarah was merely testing Cirie’s trust or she was genuinely trying to gain Cirie’s loyalty. Either way, it turned out to be the launching point to yet another epic Tribal Council.

Cirie kept her promise to use Sarah’s advantage (against Sarah?) at Tribal Council. Only there was one problem: it is non-transferrable. DOH! Did Sarah know that? She seemed to know that, which leads me to believe she was testing Cirie. And Cirie FAILED! She was planning to hoist Sarah on her own petard and ended up exposing herself as the rat.

With Cirie’s master plan lying in tatters at her feet, Sarah snatched back her advantage. And that’s when all order went out the window. Long story short: the whispering began again, Michaela got mouthy, Tai was somehow in the middle of it all and Cirie was pleading her case that she was actually acting in Sarah’s best interest (uhhh…what?).

In the end, Sarah decided to steal Tai’s vote (dowhatnow?), seemingly putting the target on Tai. But, apparently, that was a ruse to throw Cirie and Michaela off the scent of her actual plan: vote out Michaela in a complete and total blindside. Shockingly, Tai did not play one of his hidden Immunity Idols, despite receiving votes from Michaela and Aubry. Cirie, weirdly, voted for Aubry. Culpepper and Troyzan joined Sarah in voting for Michaela, sending her packing.

It was a lot to process in five minutes of TV time, honestly. Initially, it seemed Sarah would target Cirie for her apparently betrayal and vote her out. Instead, she went after her in a much more gangster way: she took out Cirie’s unwitting No. 1, taking away her favorite pet. The move only makes sense if Cirie is next on Sarah’s chopping block. If she’s not, then you’ve done nothing more than guarantee one jury vote for Cirie. Sarah’s been a smart player and must recognize that.

In spite of all the nuttiness at Tribal Council, the most baffling moment for me was Tai’s decision to not play his idol. He has two! For my money, that’s a HUGE gamble to take at this stage of the game. He put all his trust in Sarah, it would appear. That just seems crazy to me.

SURVIVOR game changers aubry eyerollThe Wrong Side of the Vote
And, once again, Aubry is on the wrong side of a major decision. As one of the smarter players in Survivor, that will certainly continue to bother her. She knows she needs to beef up her résumé if she wants a shot at winning. No matter the season you play, you have to have big moves in your column to convince the jury you’re worthy of the million dollars.

For better or worse, blindsides and bold moves outweigh any sort of performance in challenges or your ability to socialize at camp. Does anyone care that Ozzy was a great provider? Hell no! They don’t even care if you’re a challenge beast (unless you’re an unlikely challenge beast, like Cochran). All this is running through Aubry’s over-active brain, which is leading to her frustration. She’s running out of runway to ramp up a game as a serious competitor. Still, she’s my favorite player.

Survivor-Game-Changers-2017-Spoilers-Week-10-Sneak-Peek-17-550x310Big Move of the Week
Normally, Culpepper winning a crucial Immunity Challenge would qualify as the biggest move. After all, he’d probably be on the jury next week without it. But I’m going with Officer Sarah’s decision to hand Cirie her hidden advantage. Whether it was calculated or accidental, it created the flashpoint to a lot of chaos at Tribal Council. Most of all, it exposed Cirie’s game to Sarah. We’ll see if Sarah uses this information to her advantage.

Screen Shot 2017-04-20 at 1.31.24 AMSurvivor Employee of the Week
In an episode rife with big moves, important victories and shocking votes, I’m going with my favorite player: Aubry. No, it wasn’t the biggest win of the season. But she’s my favorite player, so there!

Breaking Down the Final Six
I’ll provide a deeper breakdown of the remaining players next week. In the meantime, here’s how I’d seed the finalists:

1. Officer Sarah. She’s sitting on a legacy advantage and is playing a sharp, strategic game. But she’s got a big decision coming up: who’s the greater threat? Culpepper or Cirie?

2. Culpepper. He’s won two Immunity Challenges—none bigger than on Day 35—and has been adept at keeping his head off the chopping block. He’ll need to win another Immunity, more than likely, if he wants to advance.

3. Cirie. She’s still dangerous, but exposed. If she survives the next Tribal Council, it’s because she played either Sarah against Culpepper or (more likely) the other way around.

4. Aubry. She needs to be on the right side of the next couple votes; otherwise, she’s an also-ran in this game.

5. Troyzan. Dude is just floating along, avoiding suspicion. He’s won Immunity, has an idol in his pocket and hasn’t had his name written down once this season. This guy is a dark horse.

6. Tai. I love Tai. I really do. But I can’t tell if he’s crazy or crazy like a fox. He’s cheated death a few times in this game (as well as won Immunity once), but is he cheating death because of his game play or in spite of it? Normally, a player with two hidden idols in his pocket at this stage in the game should be a Top 3 contender, but Tai’s so unpredictable that I have no faith in his ability to play them properly.

Predictions for Next Week
Someone’s going to win. Michaela will roll her eyes. And Debbie will say something self absorbed and stupid.

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