Super Tuesday is upon us and it’s going to be fairly straightforward. This Super Tuesday is going to be a day of reckoning where the frontrunners pull ahead and don’t look back. Who’s going to win? You already know, but let’s go through this pointless exercise anyway; just for fun. Before we start, let’s recap where we are, with the delegate count.
Needed to win: 1,237 (out of 2,340)
Needed to win: 2,383 (out of 4,132)
The parties’ headcounts are slightly different, but you get the point. Now, I have no idea how the parties decide which candidate gets how many delegates if they win. Not every state is “winner takes all.”
Republican Super Tuesday States
A total of 594 delegates are up for grabs today. If one candidate scores decisive victories in most of the states, he will be the likely nominee. Yeah, you know what that means: Trump. He won’t win Texas, but here’s how the day should break down:
Democratic Super Tuesday States
Things are more interesting on this side of Super Tuesday, but only in a handful of states: Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota and Oklahoma. We already know Sanders will win Vermont by the wides of margins. He is currently holding a slim lead in Oklahoma and we have no idea what’s happening in the caucus states of Colorado and Oklahoma. Everything else? Clinton. Period.
Yes, I do think Sanders will win Minnesota. Call it a hunch, based upon Minnesota’s very liberal nature.
Will those three states be enough to keep Sanders competitive? Doubtful. Massachusetts is the state he really needs, and Clinton is pulling away from him.
Is it Over Yet?
After Super Tuesday? Probably not, but the results are nearly imminent. Trump and Clinton will take commanding leads, while the cast of also-rans will spin it as though they’re still in it. That may be true on the Republican side, if the also-rans drop out and throw their voters behind a single candidate.
On the Democratic side, Sanders supporters won’t give up, despite what could be pretty stark horizons. Nevertheless, Super Tuesday is Clinton’s to lose. While losing three states isn’t preferred by any candidate, the reality is Clinton has locked down support in delegate-heavy states.
Get ready for Trump vs. Clinton rhetoric, from now until November.