Tag Archives: democratic party

my 2018 election predictions: part i

VoteI was going to try and pull a Steve Kornacki and put together a highly-detailed, well researched analysis/prediction of Tuesday’s midterm election. I was going to do that, but then I decided to pull back and focus more on the 10,000-foot view of it all.

I’ll start with a quick look at some hotly-contested gubernatorial races around the country. There are a handful of truly interesting ones that I’m sure you’ve heard about on the news. I’m also going to continue my tradition of making predictions…because my election-night predictions have always been stellar, right? Hey, I nailed 2012! 2016? Not so much, but I’ll redeem myself with some magic this week.

Before I start, let me preface this by saying none of these predictions are endorsements. I’m not that influential and I know it. But I like to follow politics for the horse race of it all. With that in mind, here goes…

The Gubernatorial Races to Watch
There are a few interesting ones to watch: Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin. Yes. Many of those are Midwest states that were once thought of as an impenetrable “blue wall” in presidential elections. But all these states have one thing in common: all their governors are Republicans. One interesting wrinkle, though: only two (Iowa and Wisconsin) have incumbents seeking re-election. The rest are up for grabs. Will any of them change hands on election night?

Florida: Ron DeSantis (R) vs. Andrew Gillum (D)
This one has gotten ugly…reeeeeeaaaalllllly ugly! DeSantis is a Trump disciple. Gillum is a young (39 years old) mayor of Tallahassee. The politics of race and race-baiting has come to the fore in this election. Will it make a difference to Floridians? Not sure if that’ll be the tipping point, but I’m guessing there will be change in the Sunshine State.
PREDICTION
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GILLUM

Georgia: Brian Kemp (R) vs. Stacey Abrams (D)
Who would’ve ever thought deep red Georgia would be in play? Well, it is. Along with the national attention it’s attracted, this race has also led to Will Ferrell and Oprah freakin’ Winfrey knocking on doors, canvassing for Abrams. Will she win? I think she’ll make it a close race, but Georgia isn’t ready to turn blue just yet.
PREDICTION
Headshot_Kemp
KEMP

Iowa: Kim Reynolds (R-incumbent) vs. Fred Hubbell (D)
I haven’t followed this race at all. Iowa is a fickle state, though. They’re sometimes red, sometimes blue. This might be the year of blue corn. I’m tossing a coin on this one, honestly.
PREDICTION
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HUBBELL

Kansas: Kris Kobach (R) vs. Laura Kelly (D)
Kris Kobach is a slimy character. He really is. But Kansas hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since 2006. You’d think, after the sheer and utter disaster of the Sam Brownback Reign of Stupidity that Kansas would say, “hey…maybe we should try the other guys this time.” Wrong. They won’t.
PREDICTION
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KOBACH

Michigan: Bill Schuette (R) vs. Gretchen Whitmer (D)
I have vivid memories from my Michigan youth of Bill Schuette’s campaign commercials back in the 80s. “Bill Schuette on duty.” It was very clever and very smart because it made a rhyme out of his name; made an otherwise hard-to-pronounce name into a brand. Smart. Very smart. Currently serving as Michigan’s attorney general, Schuette’s in a bit of hot water of his own right now (though I don’t recall all the particulars). Aside from that baggage, Michigan has been wont to flip back and forth on governors (though I’m still shocked they re-elected Snyder in the first place). Anyway, Whitmer seems to have a commanding lead right now. Another element, I imagine, is Flint’s water crisis. That can’t be helping any Michigan Republicans just now.
PREDICTION
Headshot_Whitmer
WHITMER

Nevada: Adam Laxalt (R) vs. Steve Sisolak (D)
My home state. Nevada is a purple state. While Clark County is a stronghold for Democrats, it’s not a runaway train. Yeah, Dems lead in Vegas and the surrounding areas, but Republicans hold their own. Outside Clark County, the vast majority of Nevada is rural and red, which offsets the Clark County Democrats. That’s why Nevada went blue in 2016, but outgoing GOP Gov. Brian Sandoval won re-election in 2014 in a landslide. And while Dems hold three of the state’s four congressional seats, the senate is split (and Democrat Kathleen Cortez-Masto eeked out a victory in 2016). Like I said, purple. This race is truly a toss-up. Full disclosure: I’ve been out knocking on doors on behalf of Nevada Democrats this election season. My hope: Sisolak wins. But I will not make a prediction on this race. Just as Kirk Herbstreit will not give a prediction on a game he’s calling, I shall do the same. The bottom line: voter turnout.
PREDICTION
Question Mark
?

Ohio: Mike DeWine (R) vs. Richard Cordray (D)
I’m a little surprised this is such a tight race. Republican incumbent John Kasich seems like a popular guy (although his performance in the presidential primaries didn’t show that). Kasich left a good legacy behind, so I have no idea what’s going on here. My gut tells me Ohio stays red, but in a tight one.
PREDICTION
Headshot_DeWine
DeWINE

Wisconsin: Scott Walker (R-incumbent) vs. Tony Evers (D)
Democrats have been screwing up in Wisconsin for the better part of a decade. Walker rode in on the 2010 red wave and summarily went to war against unions. He’s a weasel, if you ask me. But Democrats screwed the pooch by forcing a recall election in 2012 that was confusing, messy and lacked a message. Walker survived that and won re-election in 2014. Though Walker’s benefited from liberal voter apathy in his previous elections, he may not be so lucky this time. One can hope. Weasel.
PREDICTION
Headshot_Evers
EVERS

Coming soon…part ii: predictions on key House and Senate races. Stay tuned.

Truman Waving "Dewey Defeats Truman" Headline

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beware the ides of march…bernie.

Okay, so I was wrong. Again.

Before we start, let’s get the Republican side of this out of the way. We already know the story—Drumpf wins a bunch of states, Kasich wins his home state, Rubio was rejected by nearly EVERYONE in his home state and Cruz remains a smug, sweaty, chinless weasel. There. No need to talk about them anymore.

Moving on…

Ahead of tonight’s (rather undramatic) installment of America’s favorite reality show, Super Tuesday, I predicted Sanders would win Illinois and/or Ohio, but Clinton would carry the big prizes of the night: Florida, North Carolina and Ohio.

Clinton wins Ohio

Hillary Clinton’s Ohio victory might be the death blow for the Sanders campaign.

I was wrong.

Much to the chagrin of Sanders supporters—and shock, I’m assuming—it was all Clinton tonight. She locked down big wins in crucial swing states Florida, North Carolina and Ohio early Tuesday night, sparing a considerable amount of drama and taking the wind out of Bernie Sanders’ sails that were deflated of all that Michigan wind he gathered at his back a week ago. Clinton then went on to claim a close victory in her home state of Illinois and is clinging to a scant 1,500 vote lead in Missouri. We won’t call it a clean sweep, but it is a decisive night for Clinton. And one thing is perfectly clear: Hillary Clinton is going to win the Democratic Party nomination. Fair and square.

After the polls betrayed Clinton in Michigan last Tuesday, nobody knew what to expect tonight. Could the polls be believed after being so completely inaccurate in Michigan? Turns out, yes. The polls are to be believed.

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Source: CNN, FiveThirtyEight.com

Michigan was the outlier, not the beginning of a trend.

So, moving forward, what does this mean for the Democratic race to the nomination? It means Sanders is pretty much down to one bullet in the chamber. I don’t expect him to bow out of the race—and I don’t want him to do that—but would need to win every state by wide margins from this point forward. Even he knows the likelihood of that happening now is slim to none.

Make no mistake, though; Sanders still has a powerful voice in this campaign and can still motivate many people to champion his cause, but the million dollar question is will Sanders motivate them to get behind Clinton or not? He has said all along he would support Clinton if she wins the nomination. She hasn’t won it yet, so he should continue to fight the good fight, I say. But he and his supporters need to gear up for the inevitable. That doesn’t mean the Sanders message gets lost, though. In my mind, he’s already won the primary season. Sanders forced Clinton and the Democratic Party to pay attention to the left wing of the base; something party leadership seems wont to ignore and tamp down, sometimes.

No, party leadership did not rig the system against Sanders, so let’s put that one away for good. By my count, Clinton has pulled in about 2.5 million more votes than Sanders, thus far. I won’t call that a mandate, but it tells me the people have spoken.

That being said, I hope the Sanders and Clinton supporters can form a coalition come November and recognize their goals are closer than some realize. You say you want a revolution? Good. Then put it to work and carry the message forward, if not the candidate.

EDIT: According to MSNBC, here’s the delegate breakdown from last night.

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