Tag Archives: drumpf

super tuesday, episode iii.

20140207091635-VoteForTheOtherGuy_indiegogo_cropToday is Super Tuesday, Episode III: Attack of the Drumpf. Unless there’s a big shakeup in Florida, the Republican nomination could be well in hand for a certain orange bully. The Democratic side is significantly more interesting, in the sense that nobody trusts any of the polling data after Michigan last week.

Here’s what I think is going to happen today…

First, for the Republicans
Although the races are going to tighten up, Trump will win Illinois, Florida, Missouri and North Carolina. John Kasich is going to win his home state of Ohio, thus, keeping himself alive in the hopes of a brokered convention. Cruz may steal a state (Missouri?), but Trump will still widen his lead.

The real news is it becomes a three-horse race, as Marco Rubio is going to lose his home state and be out of the running.

If Trump does, in fact, win the winner-takes-all state of Florida, he will essentially be daring the Republican Party to not give him the nomination.

This soap opera is far from over.

Speaking of Soap Operas, the Democrats!
Races in Illinois, Missouri and Ohio have tightened, so don’t be surprised if Sanders grabs one or two of these states. Clinton has a three-point lead in Illinois and Sanders is up by 1 point in Missouri. Both are well within the margins and could go in either direction. I think Sanders steals one or both.

Ohio is a bit of a wild card right now, if you ask me. Current polls show Clinton leading by 14 points, but I don’t trust it after Michigan last week. My gut tells me Clinton wins Ohio as well as Florida and North Carolina.

What does that mean for Sanders? Simple: not dead yet. Clinton will likely widen her delegate lead (actual delegates, so enough with the super delegate whining already, Bernie Bros!), but Sanders will still have enough in the tank to keep the campaign going.

While the Republican primaries are providing more salacious TV, the Democrats have a bit of a civil war brewing, too. It’ll be interesting to see how party leadership on both sides strives to achieve unity heading into November.

In the meantime, enjoy the drama. Tonight is going to feel as close to November election coverage as we’re going to get.

Advertisements

1 Comment

Filed under analysis, politics

super tuesday of reckoning.

160221104601-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-ted-cruz-marco-rubio-bernie-sanders-composite-large-169

Super Tuesday is upon us and it’s going to be fairly straightforward. This Super Tuesday is going to be a day of reckoning where the frontrunners pull ahead and don’t look back. Who’s going to win? You already know, but let’s go through this pointless exercise anyway; just for fun. Before we start, let’s recap where we are, with the delegate count.

Republicans
Trump: 82
Cruz: 17
Rubio: 16
Kasich: 6
Carson: 4

Needed to win: 1,237 (out of 2,340)

Democrats
Clinton: 546
Sanders: 87

Needed to win: 2,383 (out of 4,132)

The parties’ headcounts are slightly different, but you get the point. Now, I have no idea how the parties decide which candidate gets how many delegates if they win. Not every state is “winner takes all.”

Republican Super Tuesday States
A total of 594 delegates are up for grabs today. If one candidate scores decisive victories in most of the states, he will be the likely nominee. Yeah, you know what that means: Trump. He won’t win Texas, but here’s how the day should break down:

Super Tuesday Republicans

Democratic Super Tuesday States
Things are more interesting on this side of Super Tuesday, but only in a handful of states: Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota and Oklahoma. We already know Sanders will win Vermont by the wides of margins. He is currently holding a slim lead in Oklahoma and we have no idea what’s happening in the caucus states of Colorado and Oklahoma. Everything else? Clinton. Period.

Super Tuesday Dems

Yes, I do think Sanders will win Minnesota. Call it a hunch, based upon Minnesota’s very liberal nature.

Will those three states be enough to keep Sanders competitive? Doubtful. Massachusetts is the state he really needs, and Clinton is pulling away from him.

Is it Over Yet?
After Super Tuesday? Probably not, but the results are nearly imminent. Trump and Clinton will take commanding leads, while the cast of also-rans will spin it as though they’re still in it. That may be true on the Republican side, if the also-rans drop out and throw their voters behind a single candidate.

On the Democratic side, Sanders supporters won’t give up, despite what could be pretty stark horizons. Nevertheless, Super Tuesday is Clinton’s to lose. While losing three states isn’t preferred by any candidate, the reality is Clinton has locked down support in delegate-heavy states.

Conclusion
Get ready for Trump vs. Clinton rhetoric, from now until November.

Leave a comment

Filed under analysis, politics