Tag Archives: hillary clinton

spoiler alert: i already know how the presidential election plays out tomorrow night.

TrumpHill_THIRD.jpg

In less than 48 hours, our long, national nightmare will be over.

We hope.

Tomorrow, Tuesday, Nov. 8, is Election Day. I’d like to believe we’ll know who’s president when we wake up Wednesday morning, but who the hell knows, since this election cycle has been anything but conventional.

Anyway, four years ago, I wrote a blog post predicting the electoral votes in chronological order. It was so much fun (and I was fairly accurate, thanks to my keen mind and statistical analysis), I decided to do it again. Of course, a month ago, my predictive modeling looked completely differently than it does today. Will the FBI farce play out at the polls? Possibly. Given that information (or lack thereof), I’ve decided to take a run at it again this year.

Let me preface this by saying: if there are any deviations from what I lay out here, it’s because the data was inaccurate…or I flipped a coin (I’m looking at you, Florida). Those deviations should scare Clinton more than Trump, too, but I’ll get into that later.

Remember, it takes 270 electoral votes (out of 538 total) to win the presidency. Just wanted to throw that out there in case you slept through that day of your high school civics class (or that episode of The West Wing). With that in mind, here goes…

In the Beginning…
When we all wake up tomorrow morning, here’s how the map of our great nation will look.

2016 Map_Blank.png

Isn’t it pretty? We’re unified, together, only state boundaries separating us. Yeah, by night’s end, we should knock that unity all to hell.

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7 p.m. EST
Polls are closing in six states:
Georgia (16)
Indiana (11)
Kentucky (8)
South Carolina (9)
Vermont (3)
Virginia (13)

By 7:01 p.m. EST, I expect all the major news outlets to declare the red states for Trump. Vermont will be called for Clinton too, at this time. Virginia, while blue here, may take a little while to get there, but I haven’t seen anything take it out of her column yet.

2016 Map_700 pm.png

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7:30 p.m. EST
Polls are closing in three states:
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
West Virginia (5)

West Virginia is Coal Country. It’s also Trump Country. It goes red, right away. Ohio will go red, too, but it might be late. Me, I think we’ll know fairly early about Ohio. And it’s going for Trump. North Carolina? Not so fast. It’s going to need a minute to get there.

2016 Map_730 pm.png

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8 p.m. EST…Here comes the Big Haul!
Polls are closing in 17 states:
Alabama (9)
Connecticut (7)
Delaware (3)
District of Columbia (3)
Florida (29)
Illinois (20)
Maine (4)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (11)
Mississippi (6)
Missouri (10)
New Hampshire (4)
New Jersey (14)
Oklahoma (7)
Pennsylvania (20)
Rhode Island (4)
Tennessee (11)

Now, the map is starting to fill in! This is the first big haul of the night and should level things off for Clinton as many traditionally blue states come in. In fact, I expect Clinton to take the lead from Trump during this hour of coverage.

2016 Map_800 pm.png

You’ll notice Florida isn’t red or blue. That’s right. Settle in, kids. I think it’s going to be another bumpy ride in the Sunshine State! Yipeeee!! And yes, we’re still waiting on North Carolina, too.

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8:30 p.m. EST: Arkansas Checks in
Polls are closing in :
Arkansas (6)

Seems hardly worth a whole lot of fanfare for one, puny state that we already know is going to Trump. But don’t be surprised if North Carolina’s on the board by now; and I expect it to go blue for Clinton.

2016 Map_830 pm.png

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9 p.m. EST…Trump’s Last Stand (?)
Polls close in 13 states:
Arizona (11)
Colorado (9)
Kansas (6)
Louisiana (8)
Michigan (16)
Minnesota (10)
Nebraska (5)
New Mexico (5)
New York (29)
South Dakota (3)
Texas (38)
Wisconsin (10)
Wyoming (3)

This is probably the most predictable set of states, really. Texas is a red, red state. New York is a blue, blue state. What’s worth pointing out here is Texas represents Trump’s last shot at a monster state (”…ahem!” says Florida). Texas is Trump’s Alamo (ha!) of sorts. But, yes, Florida is still hanging out there at this hour and could—could—prove pivotal…but not without help.

At any rate, it will still be a bit of a nail-biter at this hour because Michigan might take its time coming in…causing the Clinton campaign to likely begin drinking heavily as they have to white-knuckle it for another hour.

2016 Map_900 pm.png

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10 p.m. EST…Reply Hazy…Try Again
Polls close in four states:
Iowa (6)
Montana (3)
Nevada (6)
Utah (6)

Trump gets a trickle of votes here. Nevada is going to take a few more minutes past the 10 p.m. hour to make up its mind, I think. But by now, Michigan should be called for Clinton, so everyone in her camp gets their belts and shoelaces returned to them. Nevertheless, it’s still a tight one (on paper, at least).

2016 Map_1000 pm.png

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11 p.m. EST…THIS IS THE HOUR WE ELECT A NEW PRESIDENT
Polls close in six states:
California (55)
Hawaii (4)
Idaho (4)
North Dakota (3)
Oregon (7)
Washington (12)

Hillary_Clinton_official_Secretary_of_State_portrait_crop.jpg

Hillary Clinton will become President-elect Clinton around 11 p.m. EST.

And the winner is…

The only states left blank on the map at this point are Alaska and (perhaps) Florida. But it’s all perfunctory at this point. Trump will be drawing dead.

The only real drama will be whether or not he concedes.

2016 Map_1100 pm.png

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1 a.m. EST…oh yeah…Alaska
Polls close in one state:
Alaska (3)

Trump’s last gasp comes in the wee hours from our friends to the north in Seward’s Icebox. I also have a sinking hunch he’s going to wrest Florida away from Clinton, but it won’t really matter at this point. President-elect Clinton will be tapping her watch, waiting for Trump’s call.

2016 Map_LAST MAP 01.png

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Reflections
A month ago, I wouldn’t have predicted this close a race. I think Trump got his ass handed to him in the debates. I think he’s completely outgunned on policy, issues and basic understanding of civics and the job of being president. But I’m also keenly aware people are voting in anger this year. Many of those people also are holding to the myth of Hillary Clinton as this force of evil—a myth largely concocted by a.m. talk radio shouters, Trumpian distortions and Fox News.

But everyone gets to vote and there are no rules on how one decides their votes.

And, let’s be honest: I could be completely wrong. Take a look at this map below. These are the last four swing states, in my estimation:

THE MAP TRUMP NEEDS.png

Remember when I talked about deviations and unpredictability? The importance of Virginia and North Carolina to both candidates cannot be understated. Nevada may or may not matter, but those two states that share a border on the East Coast are holding more cards than any other states. Watch what they do tomorrow night. If they go red, we could be looking at a Trump presidency.

That is no joke.

Happy voting, everyone!

By the way…in case you wondered what I use for my predictive modeling, I ain’t tellin’!

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beware the ides of march…bernie.

Okay, so I was wrong. Again.

Before we start, let’s get the Republican side of this out of the way. We already know the story—Drumpf wins a bunch of states, Kasich wins his home state, Rubio was rejected by nearly EVERYONE in his home state and Cruz remains a smug, sweaty, chinless weasel. There. No need to talk about them anymore.

Moving on…

Ahead of tonight’s (rather undramatic) installment of America’s favorite reality show, Super Tuesday, I predicted Sanders would win Illinois and/or Ohio, but Clinton would carry the big prizes of the night: Florida, North Carolina and Ohio.

Clinton wins Ohio

Hillary Clinton’s Ohio victory might be the death blow for the Sanders campaign.

I was wrong.

Much to the chagrin of Sanders supporters—and shock, I’m assuming—it was all Clinton tonight. She locked down big wins in crucial swing states Florida, North Carolina and Ohio early Tuesday night, sparing a considerable amount of drama and taking the wind out of Bernie Sanders’ sails that were deflated of all that Michigan wind he gathered at his back a week ago. Clinton then went on to claim a close victory in her home state of Illinois and is clinging to a scant 1,500 vote lead in Missouri. We won’t call it a clean sweep, but it is a decisive night for Clinton. And one thing is perfectly clear: Hillary Clinton is going to win the Democratic Party nomination. Fair and square.

After the polls betrayed Clinton in Michigan last Tuesday, nobody knew what to expect tonight. Could the polls be believed after being so completely inaccurate in Michigan? Turns out, yes. The polls are to be believed.

Screen Shot 2016-03-16 at 2.46.08 AM.png

Source: CNN, FiveThirtyEight.com

Michigan was the outlier, not the beginning of a trend.

So, moving forward, what does this mean for the Democratic race to the nomination? It means Sanders is pretty much down to one bullet in the chamber. I don’t expect him to bow out of the race—and I don’t want him to do that—but would need to win every state by wide margins from this point forward. Even he knows the likelihood of that happening now is slim to none.

Make no mistake, though; Sanders still has a powerful voice in this campaign and can still motivate many people to champion his cause, but the million dollar question is will Sanders motivate them to get behind Clinton or not? He has said all along he would support Clinton if she wins the nomination. She hasn’t won it yet, so he should continue to fight the good fight, I say. But he and his supporters need to gear up for the inevitable. That doesn’t mean the Sanders message gets lost, though. In my mind, he’s already won the primary season. Sanders forced Clinton and the Democratic Party to pay attention to the left wing of the base; something party leadership seems wont to ignore and tamp down, sometimes.

No, party leadership did not rig the system against Sanders, so let’s put that one away for good. By my count, Clinton has pulled in about 2.5 million more votes than Sanders, thus far. I won’t call that a mandate, but it tells me the people have spoken.

That being said, I hope the Sanders and Clinton supporters can form a coalition come November and recognize their goals are closer than some realize. You say you want a revolution? Good. Then put it to work and carry the message forward, if not the candidate.

EDIT: According to MSNBC, here’s the delegate breakdown from last night.

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super tuesday, episode iii.

20140207091635-VoteForTheOtherGuy_indiegogo_cropToday is Super Tuesday, Episode III: Attack of the Drumpf. Unless there’s a big shakeup in Florida, the Republican nomination could be well in hand for a certain orange bully. The Democratic side is significantly more interesting, in the sense that nobody trusts any of the polling data after Michigan last week.

Here’s what I think is going to happen today…

First, for the Republicans
Although the races are going to tighten up, Trump will win Illinois, Florida, Missouri and North Carolina. John Kasich is going to win his home state of Ohio, thus, keeping himself alive in the hopes of a brokered convention. Cruz may steal a state (Missouri?), but Trump will still widen his lead.

The real news is it becomes a three-horse race, as Marco Rubio is going to lose his home state and be out of the running.

If Trump does, in fact, win the winner-takes-all state of Florida, he will essentially be daring the Republican Party to not give him the nomination.

This soap opera is far from over.

Speaking of Soap Operas, the Democrats!
Races in Illinois, Missouri and Ohio have tightened, so don’t be surprised if Sanders grabs one or two of these states. Clinton has a three-point lead in Illinois and Sanders is up by 1 point in Missouri. Both are well within the margins and could go in either direction. I think Sanders steals one or both.

Ohio is a bit of a wild card right now, if you ask me. Current polls show Clinton leading by 14 points, but I don’t trust it after Michigan last week. My gut tells me Clinton wins Ohio as well as Florida and North Carolina.

What does that mean for Sanders? Simple: not dead yet. Clinton will likely widen her delegate lead (actual delegates, so enough with the super delegate whining already, Bernie Bros!), but Sanders will still have enough in the tank to keep the campaign going.

While the Republican primaries are providing more salacious TV, the Democrats have a bit of a civil war brewing, too. It’ll be interesting to see how party leadership on both sides strives to achieve unity heading into November.

In the meantime, enjoy the drama. Tonight is going to feel as close to November election coverage as we’re going to get.

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political analysis: spitballing 2016.

The presidential elections in 2008 and 2012 were truly contrasts in styles for the Democrats and Republicans. Democrats opted for the young, charismatic and relative outsider to Washington politics while the Republicans nominated more establishment-style candidates. Yes, by 2008, John McCain had completed his metamorphosis from maverick to establishment. In 2012, the GOP tried to avoid an establishment candidate, but just couldn’t help themselves. While the Democrats naturally backed their incumbent president, Republicans piled onto the Mitt Romney train. And piled it into a tree.

Neither race was terribly close and, right on schedule, everyone is sick and tired of the two-term president and is already looking ahead to the next presidential election. Here’s where things are getting interesting.

If an election were held today, it would appear the parties have pulled a switcheroo on the country. Right this moment, “tea party” darling Rand Paul is looking like the odds-on favorite to win the GOP nomination. And who are the Democrats looking to? The establishment candidate (Hillary).

It’s way too soon to tell, but it’s clear both Paul and Clinton are rosining up their bows for a presidential race. What’s fascinating to me is Paul, the outsider, is starting to veer to the middle as fast as possible. He’s welching on his past statements that irked the GOP leadership while earning the admiration from conservatives who feel betrayed by their party.

On the other hand, you’ve got Hillary Clinton—a candidate with more inside track than Secretariat—throwing bombs at her former boss Obama while she’s out on her charade of a book and speaking tour.

The outsider is trying to be bland while the insider is trying to be iconoclastic. You’d think they were following polling data or something.

It’s a long way to 2016. I’m still waiting to see how many upstart Democrats and Republicans throw their hats into the ring and stir up trouble for the top contenders. Truth is, it’s a wide open race and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see both Paul and Clinton <i>not</i> win their party nominations.

I could easily see former Montana governor Brian Schweitzer or even Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren testing the Democratic waters. Schweitzer would be a great choice to nullify any NRA chatter out there. Warren is the favorite politician of the liberal wing of the Democratic Party, but I’m not sure she’s ready for the national stage.

On the Republican side? Ohio governor John Kasich or former Florida governor Jeb Bush wouldn’t surprise me one bit. Kasich would make the most strategic sense. Bush might carry the same sort of baggage as Hillary: voter fatigue with their last names. I’ve heard some talk about Indiana Gov. Mike Pence running, which is laughable to me. There isn’t a bigger airhead, an emptier suit, a less imaginative prospect out there. Pence is a joke and would probably embarrass himself on the national stage.

I know what you’re thinking: where’s Chris Christie? He’ll test the waters, but his candidacy will stall and never make it out of Iowa. For better or worse, the George Washington Bridge scandal will hang around his neck like an albatross.

Nov. 8, 2016 is more than two years away. We’ll know more about a year from now who’s running. When that time comes, we’ll revisit my pre-pre-season predictions and see if I was right or wrong.

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