Tag Archives: super tuesday

beware the ides of march…bernie.

Okay, so I was wrong. Again.

Before we start, let’s get the Republican side of this out of the way. We already know the story—Drumpf wins a bunch of states, Kasich wins his home state, Rubio was rejected by nearly EVERYONE in his home state and Cruz remains a smug, sweaty, chinless weasel. There. No need to talk about them anymore.

Moving on…

Ahead of tonight’s (rather undramatic) installment of America’s favorite reality show, Super Tuesday, I predicted Sanders would win Illinois and/or Ohio, but Clinton would carry the big prizes of the night: Florida, North Carolina and Ohio.

Clinton wins Ohio

Hillary Clinton’s Ohio victory might be the death blow for the Sanders campaign.

I was wrong.

Much to the chagrin of Sanders supporters—and shock, I’m assuming—it was all Clinton tonight. She locked down big wins in crucial swing states Florida, North Carolina and Ohio early Tuesday night, sparing a considerable amount of drama and taking the wind out of Bernie Sanders’ sails that were deflated of all that Michigan wind he gathered at his back a week ago. Clinton then went on to claim a close victory in her home state of Illinois and is clinging to a scant 1,500 vote lead in Missouri. We won’t call it a clean sweep, but it is a decisive night for Clinton. And one thing is perfectly clear: Hillary Clinton is going to win the Democratic Party nomination. Fair and square.

After the polls betrayed Clinton in Michigan last Tuesday, nobody knew what to expect tonight. Could the polls be believed after being so completely inaccurate in Michigan? Turns out, yes. The polls are to be believed.

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Source: CNN, FiveThirtyEight.com

Michigan was the outlier, not the beginning of a trend.

So, moving forward, what does this mean for the Democratic race to the nomination? It means Sanders is pretty much down to one bullet in the chamber. I don’t expect him to bow out of the race—and I don’t want him to do that—but would need to win every state by wide margins from this point forward. Even he knows the likelihood of that happening now is slim to none.

Make no mistake, though; Sanders still has a powerful voice in this campaign and can still motivate many people to champion his cause, but the million dollar question is will Sanders motivate them to get behind Clinton or not? He has said all along he would support Clinton if she wins the nomination. She hasn’t won it yet, so he should continue to fight the good fight, I say. But he and his supporters need to gear up for the inevitable. That doesn’t mean the Sanders message gets lost, though. In my mind, he’s already won the primary season. Sanders forced Clinton and the Democratic Party to pay attention to the left wing of the base; something party leadership seems wont to ignore and tamp down, sometimes.

No, party leadership did not rig the system against Sanders, so let’s put that one away for good. By my count, Clinton has pulled in about 2.5 million more votes than Sanders, thus far. I won’t call that a mandate, but it tells me the people have spoken.

That being said, I hope the Sanders and Clinton supporters can form a coalition come November and recognize their goals are closer than some realize. You say you want a revolution? Good. Then put it to work and carry the message forward, if not the candidate.

EDIT: According to MSNBC, here’s the delegate breakdown from last night.

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super tuesday of reckoning.

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Super Tuesday is upon us and it’s going to be fairly straightforward. This Super Tuesday is going to be a day of reckoning where the frontrunners pull ahead and don’t look back. Who’s going to win? You already know, but let’s go through this pointless exercise anyway; just for fun. Before we start, let’s recap where we are, with the delegate count.

Republicans
Trump: 82
Cruz: 17
Rubio: 16
Kasich: 6
Carson: 4

Needed to win: 1,237 (out of 2,340)

Democrats
Clinton: 546
Sanders: 87

Needed to win: 2,383 (out of 4,132)

The parties’ headcounts are slightly different, but you get the point. Now, I have no idea how the parties decide which candidate gets how many delegates if they win. Not every state is “winner takes all.”

Republican Super Tuesday States
A total of 594 delegates are up for grabs today. If one candidate scores decisive victories in most of the states, he will be the likely nominee. Yeah, you know what that means: Trump. He won’t win Texas, but here’s how the day should break down:

Super Tuesday Republicans

Democratic Super Tuesday States
Things are more interesting on this side of Super Tuesday, but only in a handful of states: Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota and Oklahoma. We already know Sanders will win Vermont by the wides of margins. He is currently holding a slim lead in Oklahoma and we have no idea what’s happening in the caucus states of Colorado and Oklahoma. Everything else? Clinton. Period.

Super Tuesday Dems

Yes, I do think Sanders will win Minnesota. Call it a hunch, based upon Minnesota’s very liberal nature.

Will those three states be enough to keep Sanders competitive? Doubtful. Massachusetts is the state he really needs, and Clinton is pulling away from him.

Is it Over Yet?
After Super Tuesday? Probably not, but the results are nearly imminent. Trump and Clinton will take commanding leads, while the cast of also-rans will spin it as though they’re still in it. That may be true on the Republican side, if the also-rans drop out and throw their voters behind a single candidate.

On the Democratic side, Sanders supporters won’t give up, despite what could be pretty stark horizons. Nevertheless, Super Tuesday is Clinton’s to lose. While losing three states isn’t preferred by any candidate, the reality is Clinton has locked down support in delegate-heavy states.

Conclusion
Get ready for Trump vs. Clinton rhetoric, from now until November.

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