college football championship: the mother of all breakdowns.

And then there were two. Ohio State vs. Oregon for all the marbles on Monday, Jan. 12 in Dallas. Here’s how I’d break down the general match-ups:

Rushing
Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliott is a LOAD, averaging 6.5 YPG this season. He’s one of the biggest reasons Ohio State beat Alabama, posting his best rushing game of the season. Oregon’s Royce Freeman is no slouch, averaging 5.6 YPG. But Oregon’s offense is not devoted to the run.
ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE

Receiving
Ohio State’s Devin Smith is a legitimate deep-ball threat. He doesn’t catch many passes per game, but when he does, it’s usually for big chunks of real estate. But he’s not their bread-and-butter receiver like Michael Thomas, who helps the Buckeyes move the chains.

Oregon’s receiving corps is anchored around Byron Marshall and Devon Allen. They average 13.3 and 16.7 YPG, respectively. Problem for Oregon is Allen went down with a knee in the Rose Bowl Game and is expected to miss the National Championship Game. Normally, that might be a problem, but not for the Ducks. They’ve got plenty of options on offense and a quarterback who knows how to spread the ball around. Allen’s absence will be missed, but it won’t be a liability.
ADVANTAGE: OREGON

Offensive Line
Clearly, Ohio State’s front five is doing something right if Elliott is posting such gaudy rushing stats. They clearly controlled the line of scrimmage against Alabama. Given that Ohio State’s gameplan relies heavily on the run, the Buckeyes offensive line has to play superior football. They’ve been improving with every game.

Oregon’s O-line has been battered and bruised all season long, but they’ve found their groove at the right time, helping Oregon put up 639 total yards against Florida State, including more than 301 yards on the ground as well as yielding zero sacks. The Ducks offensive line does what it needs to do in this high-powered offense. But it’s been proven they can win even if the line has a bad game. I’m not so sure Ohio State has that same luxury.
ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE

Quarterback
It’s impressive to see Urban Meyer achieve such success with his M*A*S*H unit of quarterbacks. Cardale Jones has definitely risen to the occasion and his improvements are happening in-game, rather than week-to-week. His performance in the B1G championship game and the Sugar Bowl are truly career-defining moments. Jones has been great. But he is nowhere near the level of Heisman winner Marcus Mariota. Not even close. Oregon’s offense is built around and lives and dies with Mariota. He can pass. He can run. He keeps this uptempo machine of an offense humming like an IndyCar.
ADVANTAGE: OREGON

Offense
Both teams have high-powered scoring attacks. Ohio State relies more on the ground game while Oregon brings a balance of rushing and passing. While the Buckeyes offense has improved vastly from where it was early in the season, Oregon’s offensive assault is a thing of beauty; a work of art. Their speed, precision and balance have proven to be too much for all their opponents.
ADVANTAGE: OREGON

Defense
On paper, the Ducks and Buckeyes are pretty evenly matched. Oregon gives up 22.3 points per game while Ohio State gives up 22.1 with the Buckeyes yielding less rushing yards (139.8 ypg) than the Ducks (154.2 ypg). Total defense? Not even close. Ohio State is ranked No. 14 nationally while Oregon is No. 81, just ahead of Purdue. But total yards don’t paint the whole picture. In terms of red zone defense, it’s a virtual tie. Where Ohio State has the edge is in tackles for loss and turnovers gained. The Buckeyes are simply more active on defense.
ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE

Special Teams
Ohio State is a bit more aggressive on kickoffs and punts than Oregon. Bear in mind, Oregon puts all its eggs in its offensive basket, so they rely less on special teams than most programs. I wouldn’t say the Buckeyes are much better, though. Oregon’s kicking game is more reliable.
ADVANTAGE: TIE (who cares?)

Coaching
Oregon’s Mike Helfrich is in his second year as head coach and has already posted a 24-3 total record. Impressive. He is a Chip Kelly disciple who, more importantly, was the Ducks’ offensive coordinator before becoming the head man. In many ways he is the architect of this creative, high-flying offensive machine.

Urban Meyer seems to get more invincible with every game. Before coming to Ohio State, Meyer won two national championships at Florida. He’s won 84 percent of the games he’s coached, including a 37-3 record at Ohio State. Widely regarded as one of the smartest coaches in college football, there’s no denying Meyers’ acumen. Opponents may beat Meyer’s teams by outplaying them, but I don’t think anyone in the game right now can out-coach him.
ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE

Overall
I’ve watched quite a bit of both of these teams play this year. Both boast powerful offenses, creative game plans and intelligent players and coaches. But at the end of the day, Oregon’s offense has proven to be too much for everyone they’ve played this year. Ohio State will be able to hang with them, but not for four quarters. Oregon’s ability to score fast will press Ohio State’s Jones to try and match Mariota, which he won’t be able to do. Oregon controls the tempo of the game and will win by at least 10 points when all is said and done.
ADVANTAGE: OREGON

If Ohio State Wants to Win…
They have one of three choices to beat Oregon:

1) Control the tempo.
Slow it down and grind out possessions. If the Buckeyes try and make it a slugfest, they’ll go down like Tommy Hearns stepping into a Marvelous Marvin Hagler uppercut.

2) Outgun them.
If Braxton Miller or JT Barrett were playing, I’d say Ohio State truly has a fighting chance. But they don’t. And even then, Oregon’s offense is too fast and too potent. Cardale Jones has been impressive, but he won’t be able to keep up with Mariota.

3) Out-physical them.
Ohio State’s defense might be the best one Oregon faces all year. If they can get to Mariota and rough him up, it might slow down his out-of-pocket creativity. Ohio State has to push around Oregon’s much-maligned O-line and hammer away at Mariotta, his receivers and his running backs. The problem will be sustaining that intensity for four quarters. But if they can do that, they have a puncher’s chance of winning.

My advice to Ohio State, focus on Nos. 1 and 3. Forget about keeping up in this arms race. Hold Oregon to under 40 points and you have a chance to win.

But it won’t happen.

If I Were A Betting Man
The early line, Oregon -7. The over/under is anywhere from 70.5 – 74.0. Ohio State will be able to put points on the board and hang with the Ducks for at least the first half, but I see Oregon pulling away in the third quarter. Their uptempo offense is too much to handle. Ohio State’s defense is better than Florida State’s, but that means they might hold Oregon to about 50.
MY WAGER: TAKE OREGON AND THE OVER

what defines a rivalry? respect…and a little bit of mutual rage.

What defines a rivalry? No matter the sport or the teams, the rivalry itself is something cherished and enjoyed by the fans and players alike. For fans of Michigan and Ohio State, it gets no bigger than the final conference game of the season.

Is it bigger because of history? Absolutely. many times have these two teams spoiled each other’s Big Ten and/or national championship dreams?

Is it bigger because of the coaches? No question. Brady Hoke and Urban Meyer are relative newcomers to the tradition. But everyone in Ann Arbor and Columbus remember Bo and Woody stalking the sidelines. While the outward intensity has simmered years after the Ten Year War, the importance of this game is not lost on Hoke and Meyer.

Is it bigger because of the fans? While Michigan fans get knocked for being a “polite” audience, the Big House is never silent for “the Ohio game.” And the fans in Columbus also live and breathe this rivalry more than any other game in the season. Jim Tressel knew that and, unlike his predecessor, he stressed the importance of the game to his fans. More than 100,000 people will pack the Horse Shoe this weekend and millions more will be watching on televisions all across the nation. Ask any one of those diehard fans about this game and many will tell you it’s the biggest game all season long; bigger than a bowl game, even.

Is it bigger because of the players? Sure. Whether it’s Eddie George of Ohio State or Desmond Howard of Michigan, or the countless other big-name players to play in this rivalry, it’s the players who suit up and run out of the tunnel who make this rivalry special.

While those elements truly build and perpetuate the rivalry, I point to the days leading up to and following the Michigan-Ohio State game on Saturday, Nov. 18, 2006 as the most emblematic of the intensity and class of the rivalry. With both teams undefeated and ranked 1 and 2 the polls, the rivalry game took on a whole knew depth and importance. It was arguably the biggest and most important chapter ever in the rivalry. The fans knew it. The players knew it. The media knew it. The coaches knew it. Whomever won would go on to play for a national championship. But the game would be played with heavy hearts.

Friday, Nov. 17, 2006
On the eve of the game, While preparing to tape his weekly television show, former Michigan coach Bo Schembechler collapsed and died at the age of 77. The news rippled across national media and became the news of the day.

And here’s why this rivalry is special.

Not only were Michigan fans and alumni hurting from Bo’s death, but so was the Ohio State community. The game was played in Columbus before a largely home crowd. Ohio State honored Bo’s legacy with a pre-game video and a moment of silence before kickoff. Three days later, former Ohio State head coaches Earle Bruce and John Cooper joined current head coach Jim Tressel and his staff in Ann Arbor for a memorial ceremony at Michigan Stadium. Could you imagine Tennessee fans holding a moment of silence for Steve Spurrier? That’s why this rivalry is so special. The intensity and desire to win is only outmatched by the mutual respect and admiration for one another.

But that doesn’t mean fans don’t want to see their team dominate this Saturday. Yes, there’s respect, but there’s also a fair amount of competitiveness, pride and mutual rage. At the end of the day, it’s about winning. The next 93 hours can’t go fast enough.